Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Green brings significant UFC experience with 5 fights in the promotion, while Camilo appears to be making his UFC debut with no UFC statistical data available. Green's high-volume striking approach (6.28 SLPM) should overwhelm the newcomer, though his defensive vulnerabilities (47% strike defense, absorbing 6.95 strikes per minute) present risk. Green is dropping from welterweight to lightweight, which should benefit his physicality. His switch stance presents additional complexity for Camilo to deal with. Green has shown finishing ability with a recent KO win over Yohan Lainesse in 2022, and his experience against higher-level competition should be decisive. While Green's recent form is mixed (2-3 in last 5), the level of competition he's faced far exceeds Camilo's experience, and the drop to lightweight should rejuvenate his performance.

Due to lack of available data for Matheus Camilo, the prediction is heavily skewed towards Gabe Green. Gabe has a higher significant strike rate and decent grappling stats compared to Matheus. However, his win rate is only at 40% so this might be a long drawn out fight resulting in a decision.