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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MoralesMiddleweightMain card
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin
Stoltzfus
2-6UFC
33 yrsElo 1443
VS
Nursulton RuziboevWINNER
Nursulton
Ruziboev
3-1UFC
31 yrsElo 1556
Final: Nursulton Ruziboev by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
72%
Ruziboev
GPT
65%
Ruziboev
Elo
66%
Ruziboev
1443 vs 1556
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 6'5"
75" Reach 76"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.30 Landed / min 2.38
3.23 Absorbed / minlower better 2.68
45% Strike accuracy 46%
47% Strike defense 49%
2.08 Takedowns / 15 1.36
37% TD accuracy 80%
46% TD defense 33%
1.1 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 65%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 5%GPT: Decision 75%
75%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 5%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Dustin Stoltzfus196 days out
L
win
· 2024-11-02
L
Brunno Ferreira
KO/TKO · 2024-01-06
W
Punahele Soriano
SUB · 2023-12-02
L
Abus Magomedov
KO/TKO · 2022-09-03
W
Dwight Grant
U-DEC · 2022-07-16
Nursulton Ruziboev83 days out
W
Eric McConico
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-02-22
W
Sedriques Dumas
KO/TKO · 2024-03-30
L
Joaquin Buckley
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
W
Brunno Ferreira
KO/TKO · 2023-07-01
Why
Claude
Nursulton Ruziboev
72% · KO/TKO
  • Ruziboev's 5-inch height advantage creates serious striking leverage problems for Stoltzfus
  • Stoltzfus has been finished by KO/TKO in 2 of his last 5 fights, showing chin vulnerability
  • Ruziboev defeated common opponent Brunno Ferreira while Stoltzfus was knocked out by him
  • Stoltzfus' 46% takedown defense will struggle against Ruziboev's 100% TD accuracy when he chooses to wrestle
Write-up

Ruziboev holds a significant physical advantage with a 5-inch height advantage and superior striking power. Stoltzfus has struggled defensively, absorbing 3.4 strikes per minute with only 47% defense, making him vulnerable to Ruziboev's power. While Stoltzfus has better grappling credentials (2.45 TD avg vs 0.77), Ruziboev's 100% TD accuracy suggests quality over quantity. Critically, Ruziboev has demonstrated superior performance against common opponent Brunno Ferreira, defeating him while Stoltzfus was knocked out. Stoltzfus' recent form is concerning with 3 losses in his last 5 fights, including 2 by KO/TKO, showing vulnerability to power strikers like Ruziboev.

GPT
Nursulton Ruziboev
65% · Decision
  • Higher win rate
  • Better performance against common opponents
  • Superior striking defense
Write-up

Ruziboev has a higher win rate, better performance against common opponents, and superior striking defense. Although Stoltzfus has a higher takedown average, Ruziboev has a perfect takedown accuracy which might neutralize Stoltzfus's advantage.