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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MoralesWomen's StrawweightPrelims
Elise Reed
Elise
Reed
4-4UFC
32 yrsElo 1458
VS
Denise GomesWINNER
Denise
Gomes
3-3UFC
25 yrsElo 1565
Final: Denise Gomes by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Claude
70%
Gomes
GPT
65%
Gomes
Elo
65%
Gomes
1458 vs 1565
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'3" Height 5'2"
63" Reach 63"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.41 Landed / min 4.43
3.26 Absorbed / minlower better 3.16
53% Strike accuracy 49%
51% Strike defense 51%
0.46 Takedowns / 15 1.45
60% TD accuracy 34%
53% TD defense 66%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.7
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 20%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Elise Reed385 days out
W
Jessica Penne
U-DEC · 2024-04-27
L
Loopy Godinez
SUB · 2023-09-16
W
Jinh Yu Frey
U-DEC · 2023-06-03
L
Loma Lookboonmee
SUB · 2023-02-11
W
Melissa Martinez
U-DEC · 2022-09-10
Denise Gomes188 days out
L
win
· 2024-11-09
W
Eduarda Moura
S-DEC · 2024-01-06
L
Angela Hill
U-DEC · 2023-11-04
W
Yazmin Jauregui
KO/TKO · 2023-07-08
W
Bruna Brasil
KO/TKO · 2023-04-15
Why
Claude
Denise Gomes
70% · Decision
  • Gomes's striking volume advantage (4.48 SLPM vs 3.5 SLPM)
  • Gomes's superior striking differential (+1.36 vs +0.35)
  • Gomes's higher takedown average (0.88 vs 0.49) and submission threat (0.9 vs 0)
  • Reed's lower takedown defense (56% vs 66%) creates vulnerability to Gomes's grappling
Write-up

Gomes demonstrates significantly higher striking volume (4.48 SLPM vs Reed's 3.5) and a better striking differential (+1.36 vs Reed's +0.35). While Reed has slightly better striking accuracy (53% vs 49%), Gomes's volume advantage should allow her to outpoint Reed over three rounds. Gomes also possesses superior grappling metrics with higher takedown average (0.88 vs 0.49) and submission threat (0.9 vs 0), giving her multiple paths to victory. Reed's takedown defense (56%) is significantly lower than Gomes's (66%), suggesting vulnerability to Gomes's grappling. Their common opponent analysis against Loma Lookboonmee shows both lost, but Reed was submitted while Gomes lost by decision, indicating Reed's greater vulnerability to grappling.

GPT
Denise Gomes
65% · Decision
  • Striking Volume
  • Takedown Average
  • Takedown Defense
Write-up

Denise Gomes has the edge in terms of striking volume and takedown average. Though her striking accuracy is slightly lower than Elise Reed, her significantly higher strike volume should make up for this. Her takedown average is also higher, and her takedown defense is significantly better than Reed's, which could be key in a fight that may involve a lot of grappling.