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HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

FINAL: HyunSung Park by SUB Rear Naked Choke
HyunSung Park
HyunSung Park
Age 29 · Elo 1532*
WW
524 days since last fight
vs
Carlos Hernandez
Carlos Hernandez
Age 31 · Elo 1452
LLLWL
174 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

HyunSung ParkCarlos Hernandez
Claude Claude: HyunSung Park 75% Claude: Carlos Hernandez 25% 75% 25% GPT GPT: HyunSung Park 70% GPT: Carlos Hernandez 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: HyunSung Park 61% Elo: Carlos Hernandez 39% 61% 39%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

HyunSung ParkCarlos Hernandez
Strikes landed / min HyunSung Park Strikes landed / min: 4.15 4.15 Carlos Hernandez Strikes landed / min: 4.11 4.11 Strikes absorbed / min HyunSung Park Strikes absorbed / min: 3.43 3.43 Carlos Hernandez Strikes absorbed / min: 3.80 3.80 Striking accuracy HyunSung Park Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Carlos Hernandez Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Striking defense HyunSung Park Striking defense: 59% 59% Carlos Hernandez Striking defense: 46% 46% Takedowns / 15 min HyunSung Park Takedowns / 15 min: 1.54 1.54 Carlos Hernandez Takedowns / 15 min: 1.08 1.08 Takedown defense HyunSung Park Takedown defense: 100% 100% Carlos Hernandez Takedown defense: 64% 64% Sub attempts / 15 min HyunSung Park Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.6 2.6 Carlos Hernandez Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 45% 45% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 30% 30% GPT: Submission 40% 40% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
HyunSung Park by Submission, 75% confidence

Park demonstrates significant advantages across multiple metrics. His striking differential (+0.72 vs Hernandez's +0.31) and superior defense (59% vs 46%) give him a clear edge in stand-up exchanges. Park's grappling metrics show overwhelming dominance with perfect takedown defense (100% vs Hernandez's 64%) and substantially higher submission threat (2.6 vs 0.2). While both fighters have similar striking volume, Park's defensive superiority should allow him to avoid damage while landing more effectively. Hernandez is on a concerning downward trend with 4 consecutive losses, including a KO/TKO defeat, while Park is undefeated in the UFC with wins by both KO/TKO and submission, demonstrating his well-rounded finishing ability. Hernandez's 64% takedown defense is particularly vulnerable against Park's submission-heavy game.

GPT
HyunSung Park by Submission, 70% confidence

HyunSung Park has a clear advantage in both striking and grappling. He lands more strikes per minute and absorbs fewer strikes than Carlos Hernandez. Additionally, Park's takedown defense is perfect, and he averages more takedowns and submissions per fight than Hernandez.