HyunSung Park vs Carlos Hernandez
Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Park demonstrates significant advantages across multiple metrics. His striking differential (+0.72 vs Hernandez's +0.31) and superior defense (59% vs 46%) give him a clear edge in stand-up exchanges. Park's grappling metrics show overwhelming dominance with perfect takedown defense (100% vs Hernandez's 64%) and substantially higher submission threat (2.6 vs 0.2). While both fighters have similar striking volume, Park's defensive superiority should allow him to avoid damage while landing more effectively. Hernandez is on a concerning downward trend with 4 consecutive losses, including a KO/TKO defeat, while Park is undefeated in the UFC with wins by both KO/TKO and submission, demonstrating his well-rounded finishing ability. Hernandez's 64% takedown defense is particularly vulnerable against Park's submission-heavy game.
HyunSung Park has a clear advantage in both striking and grappling. He lands more strikes per minute and absorbs fewer strikes than Carlos Hernandez. Additionally, Park's takedown defense is perfect, and he averages more takedowns and submissions per fight than Hernandez.