John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Castaneda is statistically more efficient and defensively sound, and should be able to exploit Vologdin's porous defense and negative striking differential with cleaner counters and occasional takedowns. Vologdin's high output but extremely high damage absorption suggests he can be outscored and potentially controlled, but his durability and volume make a finish less likely than a clear decision for Castaneda.