Back
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottBantamweightPrelims
John
Castaneda
4-4UFC
VS
Mark
Vologdin
Who wins
Castaneda winsevenVologdin wins
GPT 69% Castaneda
GPT
69%
Castaneda
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'6"
Height
5'3"
71"
Reach
65"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
4.67
Landed / min
7.80
5.22
Absorbed / minlower better
11.00
50%
Strike accuracy
52%
54%
Strike defense
34%
1.79
Takedowns / 15
n/a
35%
TD accuracy
0%
71%
TD defense
57%
0.1
Subs / 15
n/a
Small sample: Mark Vologdin, 0 UFC fights.
How it ends
65%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 27%Submission 8%Decision 65%
Formnewest first
John Castaneda357 days out
L
Chris Gutierrez
S-DEC · 2025-04-26
L
Daniel Marcos
U-DEC · 2024-01-06
W
Kyung Ho Kang
U-DEC · 2023-11-11
W
Muin Gafurov
U-DEC · 2023-06-03
L
Daniel Santos
KO/TKO · 2022-10-01
Mark Vologdin
No UFC fights
Why
GPT
John Castaneda
69% · Decision
- Vologdin absorbs 11.0 significant strikes per minute with only 34% striking defense, creating a large defensive liability against a more efficient striker.
- Castaneda's 50% striking accuracy and more balanced metrics, plus a smaller negative differential (-0.55 vs -3.2), indicate better shot selection and damage management.
- Castaneda's wrestling threat (1.79 TDs per 15 with 71% TD defense) offers a secondary path to bank rounds and disrupt Vologdin's rhythm if the striking exchanges get too wild.
Write-up
Castaneda is statistically more efficient and defensively sound, and should be able to exploit Vologdin's porous defense and negative striking differential with cleaner counters and occasional takedowns. Vologdin's high output but extremely high damage absorption suggests he can be outscored and potentially controlled, but his durability and volume make a finish less likely than a clear decision for Castaneda.