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Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Karine Silva

Women's Flyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

FINAL: Jasmine Jasudavicius by U-DEC
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Age 37 · Elo 1563
LWWLW
182 days since last fight
vs
Karine Silva
Karine Silva
Age 32 · Elo 1551
LWLWW
132 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jasmine JasudaviciusKarine Silva
GPT GPT: Jasmine Jasudavicius 31% GPT: Karine Silva 69% 31% 69% Elo Elo: Jasmine Jasudavicius 52% Elo: Karine Silva 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jasmine JasudaviciusKarine Silva
Strikes landed / min Jasmine Jasudavicius Strikes landed / min: 3.47 3.47 Karine Silva Strikes landed / min: 2.67 2.67 Strikes absorbed / min Jasmine Jasudavicius Strikes absorbed / min: 3.46 3.46 Karine Silva Strikes absorbed / min: 3.12 3.12 Striking accuracy Jasmine Jasudavicius Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Karine Silva Striking accuracy: 35% 35% Striking defense Jasmine Jasudavicius Striking defense: 51% 51% Karine Silva Striking defense: 49% 49% Takedowns / 15 min Jasmine Jasudavicius Takedowns / 15 min: 2.63 2.63 Karine Silva Takedowns / 15 min: 3.59 3.59 Takedown defense Jasmine Jasudavicius Takedown defense: 75% 75% Karine Silva Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Jasmine Jasudavicius Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Karine Silva Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.2 2.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 52% 52% GPT: Decision 38% 38%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Karine Silva by Submission, 69% confidence

Silva's finishing-oriented grappling, elite 72% takedown accuracy, and 2.2 subs per 15 minutes pose a serious threat to a wrestler/grappler like Jasudavicius who often accepts grappling exchanges. While Jasmine has a slight volume edge on the feet and solid 75% takedown defense, her style of clinching and wrestling to win minutes plays directly into Silva's submission game. Over three rounds, the likelihood that Silva finds a neck or limb off a scramble, reactive shot, or clinch entry is higher than Jasudavicius being able to safely control and grind her out without getting caught.