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JJ Aldrich vs Jamey-Lyn Horth

Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

FINAL: JJ Aldrich by U-DEC
JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
Age 33 · Elo 1538
WLWWL
412 days since last fight
vs
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Age 36 · Elo 1495
WWLLL
125 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

JJ AldrichJamey-Lyn Horth
GPT GPT: JJ Aldrich 36% GPT: Jamey-Lyn Horth 64% 36% 64% Elo Elo: JJ Aldrich 56% Elo: Jamey-Lyn Horth 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

JJ AldrichJamey-Lyn Horth
Strikes landed / min JJ Aldrich Strikes landed / min: 3.92 3.92 Jamey-Lyn Horth Strikes landed / min: 3.80 3.80 Strikes absorbed / min JJ Aldrich Strikes absorbed / min: 4.34 4.34 Jamey-Lyn Horth Strikes absorbed / min: 2.64 2.64 Striking accuracy JJ Aldrich Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Jamey-Lyn Horth Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Striking defense JJ Aldrich Striking defense: 61% 61% Jamey-Lyn Horth Striking defense: 63% 63% Takedowns / 15 min JJ Aldrich Takedowns / 15 min: 0.70 0.70 Jamey-Lyn Horth Takedowns / 15 min: 0.98 0.98 Takedown defense JJ Aldrich Takedown defense: 67% 67% Jamey-Lyn Horth Takedown defense: 80% 80% Sub attempts / 15 min JJ Aldrich Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Jamey-Lyn Horth Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 14% 14% GPT: Submission 8% 8% GPT: Decision 78% 78%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision, 64% confidence

Horth's superior striking accuracy (+10 percentage points), positive strike differential (+0.38 vs Aldrich's -0.50), and higher takedown output with better accuracy (1.0 TDs/fight at 37% vs 0.66 at 23%) point to more efficient round-winning tools over three rounds. Aldrich is durable and historically hard to finish, but her negative strike differential and lower offensive efficiency suggest she'll be slightly outworked in both the striking and clinch/wrestling phases, especially with Horth's small physical and wrestling edge.