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Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott

Welterweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

FINAL: Mike Malott by KO/TKO Punches
Gilbert Burns
Gilbert Burns
Age 39 · Elo 1566
LLLLW
336 days since last fight
vs
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
Age 34 · Elo 1576
WWLLW
182 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Gilbert BurnsMike Malott
GPT GPT: Gilbert Burns 72% GPT: Mike Malott 28% 72% 28% Elo Elo: Gilbert Burns 49% Elo: Mike Malott 51% 49% 51%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Gilbert BurnsMike Malott
Strikes landed / min Gilbert Burns Strikes landed / min: 3.17 3.17 Mike Malott Strikes landed / min: 4.02 4.02 Strikes absorbed / min Gilbert Burns Strikes absorbed / min: 3.57 3.57 Mike Malott Strikes absorbed / min: 3.09 3.09 Striking accuracy Gilbert Burns Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Mike Malott Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Gilbert Burns Striking defense: 52% 52% Mike Malott Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Gilbert Burns Takedowns / 15 min: 2.10 2.10 Mike Malott Takedowns / 15 min: 1.63 1.63 Takedown defense Gilbert Burns Takedown defense: 53% 53% Mike Malott Takedown defense: 57% 57% Sub attempts / 15 min Gilbert Burns Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Mike Malott Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 22% 22% GPT: Submission 28% 28% GPT: Decision 50% 50%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Gilbert Burns by Decision, 72% confidence

Burns' championship-level experience, historically elite BJJ, and proven five-round durability offset Malott's small physical and volume edges. Malott's offensive wrestling and submission game are strong on paper, but his takedown defense (16%) and limited high-level opposition suggest he is unlikely to consistently out-grapple Burns or hold him down. Burns' superior strength of schedule, tighter defensive grappling, and ability to mix takedowns with power counters should allow him to control the higher-leverage moments and bank rounds, even if Malott has early success on the feet.