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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottLightweightPrelims
Thiago Moises
Thiago
Moises
8-7UFC
31 yrsElo 1518
VS
Gauge YoungWINNER
Gauge
Young
1-1UFC
25 yrsElo 1503*
Final: Gauge Young by S-DEC
Who wins
GPT
76%
Moises
Elo
52%
Moises
1518 vs 1503
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9" Height 5'9"
70" Reach 70"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
2.39 Landed / min 6.32
4.14 Absorbed / minlower better 5.12
40% Strike accuracy 52%
54% Strike defense 49%
1.47 Takedowns / 15 0.75
35% TD accuracy 30%
55% TD defense 76%
1.3 Subs / 15 0.0
Small sample: Gauge Young, 2 UFC fights.
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 14%GPT: Submission 47%GPT: Decision 39%
47%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 14%Submission 47%Decision 39%
Formnewest first
Thiago Moises336 days out
L
Jared Gordon
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-05-17
W
Trey Ogden
U-DEC · 2025-01-11
W
Mitch Ramirez
KO/TKO · 2024-03-16
L
Ludovit Klein
U-DEC · 2024-01-06
L
Benoit Saint Denis
KO/TKO · 2023-09-02
Gauge Young238 days out
W
Maheshate
U-DEC · 2025-08-23
L
Evan Elder
U-DEC · 2025-04-26
Why
GPT
Thiago Moises
76% · Submission
  • Major grappling edge for Moises: consistent takedown attempts and high submission rate vs. Young's zero offensive grappling
  • Young's defensive liabilities: negative striking differential, lower strike defense, and only moderate takedown defense against a seasoned grappler
  • Experience gap: Moises has faced and beaten higher-level UFC competition, while Young's profile is that of a striker with unproven durability and grappling at this level
Write-up

Moises is a proven UFC-level grappler with strong submission output (1.3 subs per 15, solid takedown volume) facing a striker in Young who shows no offensive wrestling, modest takedown defense, and a negative striking differential in high-pace exchanges. Young's higher output and accuracy give him some standing danger, but Moises' experience, submission threat, and ability to mix in takedowns against a defensively porous opponent strongly favor him finding a finish on the mat over three rounds.