Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Moises is a proven UFC-level grappler with strong submission output (1.3 subs per 15, solid takedown volume) facing a striker in Young who shows no offensive wrestling, modest takedown defense, and a negative striking differential in high-pace exchanges. Young's higher output and accuracy give him some standing danger, but Moises' experience, submission threat, and ability to mix in takedowns against a defensively porous opponent strongly favor him finding a finish on the mat over three rounds.