Back
WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottLightweightPrelims
Thiago
Moises
8-7UFC
VS
Gauge
Young
1-1UFC
Final: Gauge Young by S-DEC
Who wins
Moises winsevenYoung wins
Elo 52% Moises
GPT 76% Moises
GPT
76%
Moises
Elo
52%
Moises
1518 vs 1503
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
2.39
Landed / min
6.32
4.14
Absorbed / minlower better
5.12
40%
Strike accuracy
52%
54%
Strike defense
49%
1.47
Takedowns / 15
0.75
35%
TD accuracy
30%
55%
TD defense
76%
1.3
Subs / 15
0.0
Small sample: Gauge Young, 2 UFC fights.
How it ends
47%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 14%Submission 47%Decision 39%
Formnewest first
Thiago Moises336 days out
L
Jared Gordon
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-05-17
W
Trey Ogden
U-DEC · 2025-01-11
W
Mitch Ramirez
KO/TKO · 2024-03-16
L
Ludovit Klein
U-DEC · 2024-01-06
L
Benoit Saint Denis
KO/TKO · 2023-09-02
Gauge Young238 days out
W
Maheshate
U-DEC · 2025-08-23
L
Evan Elder
U-DEC · 2025-04-26
Why
GPT
Thiago Moises
76% · Submission
- Major grappling edge for Moises: consistent takedown attempts and high submission rate vs. Young's zero offensive grappling
- Young's defensive liabilities: negative striking differential, lower strike defense, and only moderate takedown defense against a seasoned grappler
- Experience gap: Moises has faced and beaten higher-level UFC competition, while Young's profile is that of a striker with unproven durability and grappling at this level
Write-up
Moises is a proven UFC-level grappler with strong submission output (1.3 subs per 15, solid takedown volume) facing a striker in Young who shows no offensive wrestling, modest takedown defense, and a negative striking differential in high-pace exchanges. Young's higher output and accuracy give him some standing danger, but Moises' experience, submission threat, and ability to mix in takedowns against a defensively porous opponent strongly favor him finding a finish on the mat over three rounds.