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Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

FINAL: Charles Jourdain by U-DEC
Kyler Phillips
Kyler Phillips
Age 30 · Elo 1547
LLWWW
273 days since last fight
vs
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain
Age 30 · Elo 1537
WLLLW
182 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Kyler PhillipsCharles Jourdain
GPT GPT: Kyler Phillips 69% GPT: Charles Jourdain 31% 69% 31% Elo Elo: Kyler Phillips 51% Elo: Charles Jourdain 49% 51% 49%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Kyler PhillipsCharles Jourdain
Strikes landed / min Kyler Phillips Strikes landed / min: 5.28 5.28 Charles Jourdain Strikes landed / min: 5.36 5.36 Strikes absorbed / min Kyler Phillips Strikes absorbed / min: 3.47 3.47 Charles Jourdain Strikes absorbed / min: 4.11 4.11 Striking accuracy Kyler Phillips Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Charles Jourdain Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Striking defense Kyler Phillips Striking defense: 60% 60% Charles Jourdain Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Kyler Phillips Takedowns / 15 min: 2.63 2.63 Charles Jourdain Takedowns / 15 min: 0.38 0.38 Takedown defense Kyler Phillips Takedown defense: 75% 75% Charles Jourdain Takedown defense: 46% 46% Sub attempts / 15 min Kyler Phillips Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Charles Jourdain Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 17% 17% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Kyler Phillips by Decision, 69% confidence

Phillips' higher striking defense, positive strike differential, and significantly stronger offensive and defensive wrestling profile give him more paths to win over three rounds. Jourdain throws slightly higher volume with better accuracy, but his porous takedown defense and higher damage intake (SApM) make him vulnerable to being grounded and outscored, especially given Phillips' 2.63 TDs per 15 minutes at 51% accuracy and 75% TD defense to keep the fight in favorable phases.