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Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

Mitch Raposo
Mitch Raposo
Age 27 · Elo 1482*
WLL
175 days since last fight
vs
Allan Nascimento
Allan Nascimento
Age 34 · Elo 1548*
WWWL
322 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Mitch RaposoAllan Nascimento
GPT GPT: Mitch Raposo 28% GPT: Allan Nascimento 72% 28% 72% Elo Elo: Mitch Raposo 41% Elo: Allan Nascimento 59% 41% 59%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Mitch RaposoAllan Nascimento
Strikes landed / min Mitch Raposo Strikes landed / min: 2.29 2.29 Allan Nascimento Strikes landed / min: 3.20 3.20 Strikes absorbed / min Mitch Raposo Strikes absorbed / min: 3.32 3.32 Allan Nascimento Strikes absorbed / min: 2.53 2.53 Striking accuracy Mitch Raposo Striking accuracy: 33% 33% Allan Nascimento Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Striking defense Mitch Raposo Striking defense: 51% 51% Allan Nascimento Striking defense: 53% 53% Takedowns / 15 min Mitch Raposo Takedowns / 15 min: 1.94 1.94 Allan Nascimento Takedowns / 15 min: 1.04 1.04 Takedown defense Mitch Raposo Takedown defense: 50% 50% Allan Nascimento Takedown defense: 41% 41% Sub attempts / 15 min Mitch Raposo Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Allan Nascimento Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.9 0.9

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 45% 45% GPT: Decision 45% 45%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Allan Nascimento by Submission, 72% confidence

Nascimento's combination of high submission output (0.9 subs per 15), superior offensive efficiency (much better striking differential and 61% accuracy), and large reach advantage against a smaller, more wrestling-dependent Raposo creates a strong stylistic edge. Raposo's 50% takedown defense and negative striking differential suggest he will either be outworked at range or forced into grappling sequences where Nascimento's opportunistic back-taking and front-choke game historically shine.