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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottFlyweightPrelims
Mitch
Raposo
1-2UFC
VS
Allan
Nascimento
3-1UFC
Who wins
Raposo winsevenNascimento wins
GPT 72% Nascimento
Elo 59% Nascimento
GPT
72%
Nascimento
Elo
59%
Nascimento
1482 vs 1548
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'5"
Height
5'8"
64"
Reach
69"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
2.29
Landed / min
3.20
3.32
Absorbed / minlower better
2.53
33%
Strike accuracy
51%
51%
Strike defense
53%
1.94
Takedowns / 15
1.04
60%
TD accuracy
20%
50%
TD defense
41%
0.0
Subs / 15
0.9
How it ends
45%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 10%Submission 45%Decision 45%
Formnewest first
Mitch Raposo175 days out
W
Azat Maksum
U-DEC · 2025-10-25
L
Sumudaerji
S-DEC · 2025-04-12
L
Andre Lima
S-DEC · 2024-01-01
Allan Nascimento322 days out
W
Jafel Filho
U-DEC · 2025-05-31
W
Carlos Hernandez
SUB · 2023-01-14
W
Jake Hadley
U-DEC · 2022-05-14
L
Tagir Ulanbekov
S-DEC · 2021-10-30
Why
GPT
Allan Nascimento
72% · Submission
- Clear grappling/submission edge for Nascimento with far higher submission volume and proven finishing ability on the mat.
- Nascimento's striking efficiency: better output, much higher accuracy, and positive differential versus Raposo's negative differential and lower accuracy.
- Reach advantage and switch stance of Nascimento likely neutralize Raposo's wrestling entries, forcing more scrambles where Nascimento excels.
Write-up
Nascimento's combination of high submission output (0.9 subs per 15), superior offensive efficiency (much better striking differential and 61% accuracy), and large reach advantage against a smaller, more wrestling-dependent Raposo creates a strong stylistic edge. Raposo's 50% takedown defense and negative striking differential suggest he will either be outworked at range or forced into grappling sequences where Nascimento's opportunistic back-taking and front-choke game historically shine.