- Accuracy gap: Malott lands 48% of significant strikes to Buckley's 36%, on similar volume (4.02 vs 3.62 per minute)
- Buckley's two straight decision losses came against grapplers (Usman, Brady), and Malott can mix in takedowns (1.63 per 15 minutes) and submission attempts (0.7 per 15 minutes)
- Common opponent: Malott beat Kevin Holland by decision; Holland had beaten Buckley earlier in their careers
- Buckley's knockout power, 76-inch reach (3 inches longer) and southpaw left hand threaten Malott, whose chin is in question after the Magny TKO
Write-up
The two priors split. The market has Malott at 55% (-135) and Elo has Buckley at 52%. Both say this is close to a coin flip, so I start from the market and make only a small adjustment. Recent form explains Malott's edge. His rating is rising (+41) after four straight wins, the latest a third-round TKO of Gilbert Burns in April 2026, plus a decision over Kevin Holland, who had beaten Buckley. Buckley's rating is falling slightly (-5). He lost clear decisions to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, and the pattern is plain: he struggles when a top grappler can make him wrestle for 15 to 25 minutes. Malott is not an Usman- or Brady-level grappler, but he lands 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, averages 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes (Buckley averages 0.1), and is more accurate on the feet (48% vs 36%). He also lands a bit more volume (4.02 vs 3.62 significant strikes per minute) while absorbing about the same (3.09 vs 3.10). Buckley's 76-inch reach beats Malott's 73 inches, his southpaw stance can catch an orthodox opponent with the left hand, and his knockouts of Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson show he can end the fight at any point. Malott's chin is a real question after Neil Magny stopped him in January 2024, and his 57% takedown defense means Buckley could also mix in wrestling. Malott is Canadian, so he likely has the crowd in Edmonton. Buckley's August freestyle wrestling match with Tyron Woodley was low-impact, and there is no injury news. I stay at the market's 55: Malott's rising form and second grappling threat make him the slightly more likely winner, but Buckley's power keeps this close.
- Market narrowly favors Malott; Elo narrowly favors Buckley
- Malott leads striking accuracy 48% to 36% and landed volume 4.02 to 3.62
- Malott's last three listed results consistently show wins
- Buckley's wrestling and stronger opposition history limit confidence
- Partial, conflicting historical data; neither layoff is unusually long
Write-up
I narrowly side with Malott, starting from his 55% market probability. His higher striking accuracy, positive strike differential and three undisputed recent wins support that lean. Buckley's opponent-adjusted Elo advantage (52% win probability), stronger takedown defense and experience against Brady and Usman keep this close; those losses should not be treated as simple decline. Buckley's wrestling could exploit Malott's 57% takedown defense. Neither listed layoff approaches 450 days, and the scouting report supplies no confirmed adverse adjustment. Conflicting older results and duplicate entries reduce confidence in streak summaries. Method percentages are conditional on a Malott victory.