This bout was first booked for UFC 330 in August, but Blanchfield withdrew with an injury and the UFC moved the fight to the October 17 Edmonton card. The report did not say what the injury was.
- Common opponents favor Blanchfield: she submitted Tracy Cortez, who beat Jasudavicius, and went five rounds with Fiorot, who knocked Jasudavicius out in round 1
- Jasudavicius's main weapon (2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes) runs into Blanchfield's 78% takedown defense and dangerous submission game in scrambles
- Striking edge: Blanchfield +0.99 strikes per minute with 58% defense, vs Jasudavicius +0.01 with 51% defense
- Risks for Blanchfield: an unspecified injury forced her out of UFC 330, she returns after 331 days, and Jasudavicius has a size and home-crowd edge
Write-up
The market has Blanchfield at 74% (-325); Elo has her at only 57%. That 17-point gap is the main thing to resolve. Elo reflects that Jasudavicius has built a solid record: three wins in her last four, a submission of Jessica Andrade, a decision over Mayra Bueno Silva, and a recent decision over Karine Silva. Her rating is rising (+16) while Blanchfield's is down slightly (-10). The market is still pricing the skill gap that the matchup data supports. Blanchfield out-lands her opponents by about one strike per minute (5.24 landed vs 4.25 absorbed). Jasudavicius is roughly even (3.47 vs 3.46) and has weaker striking defense (51% vs 58%). The best comparison is common opponents: Blanchfield submitted Tracy Cortez, who beat Jasudavicius. Both lost to Manon Fiorot, but Blanchfield went five rounds and lost a decision, while Jasudavicius was knocked out in round 1. Jasudavicius wins most of her fights by wrestling (2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes), but that runs into Blanchfield's 78% takedown defense and elite submission game from top and bottom (0.9 attempts per 15 minutes). Jasudavicius does have 3 inches of height and 2 inches of reach, she fights at home in Canada, and Blanchfield pulled out of UFC 330 with an unspecified injury and returns after a 331-day layoff. Those are real, specific risks, so I set confidence a few points below the market and do not follow Elo all the way down. Both women are durable, so a decision is most likely. A rear-naked choke from a scramble is the main finishing path.
- Market and Elo favor Blanchfield, but disagree substantially on the margin
- Blanchfield leads striking output 5.24, 3.47 and differential +0.99, +0.01
- Jasudavicius leads takedown rate 2.63, 1.96 and accuracy 46%, 34%
- Blanchfield's longer inactivity and prior injury introduce uncertainty
- Contradictory form and common-opponent summaries limit confidence
Write-up
Starting from the supplied 74% market baseline, I favor Blanchfield but reduce confidence modestly because opponent-adjusted Elo gives her only 57%. Her higher striking output, better strike differential and 78% takedown defense support winning competitive rounds. Jasudavicius counters with more frequent, more accurate takedowns and a rising Elo trend. Both have recent submission wins, but their strong takedown defenses favor a decision. Blanchfield's listed 331-day layoff exceeds Jasudavicius's 177 days but remains below the major-risk threshold. Her July injury withdrawal adds uncertainty, although that older news is likely already priced in. Conflicting recent-result entries weaken form conclusions; the claim that both defeated Fiorot contradicts both fight logs and is excluded. Round assumes a three-round bout; method percentages are conditional on Blanchfield winning.