SB Nation reported that Croden had a scare at the weigh-ins and stripped down to weigh in behind a box. She came in at 136 lbs and made weight, and Chandler made weight at 135.5 lbs.
- Croden lands 2.02 takedowns per 15 at 50% accuracy against Chandler's 25% takedown defense, a big wrestling edge
- Striking defense gap: Croden is at 59% (2.13 SApM), Chandler at 40% (4.27 SApM)
- Chandler's armbar over Cachoeira in June 2026 is her main threat, so Croden has to be careful in top position
- Market at 70% and Elo at 56% agree. Croden's record is mostly 15-minute fights (2 decisions, plus a R3 TKO)
Write-up
The market (70%) and Elo (56%, with Croden provisional on 3 fights) both pick Croden, and the matchup numbers support them. Croden does more work on both ends: 4.27 SLpM against 2.13 absorbed, 59% striking defense, plus a real wrestling layer at 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes on 50% accuracy. Chandler's defensive numbers are among the weakest on this card: 40% striking defense, 4.27 SApM and only 25% takedown defense. Croden's takedowns should land often, and she can mix them into her striking to win rounds clearly. Chandler's armbar win over Priscila Cachoeira in June 2026 is a reminder that she can finish from bottom or in scrambles (0.3 sub attempts/15). Croden needs to be disciplined in top position, but Chandler's southpaw stance doesn't offset the wrestling gap. Chandler's UFC losses have mostly been decisions to well-rounded fighters (Dumont, Yana Santos), plus a R1 KO by Joselyne Edwards. Croden is a disciplined three-round fighter: a U-DEC over Zhelezniakova, a close U-DEC loss to Luana Santos, and a late R3 TKO of Tainara Lisboa. She is also the Canadian fighter here, fighting in Edmonton. The most likely result is a clear decision built on volume and takedowns, with a late TKO possible if Chandler's poor defense breaks down.
- Market and Elo favor Croden, but differ substantially on the size of her advantage
- Croden leads in striking output and defense
- Croden's takedown production matches up favorably with Chandler's low takedown defense
- Chandler's recent submission win preserves a meaningful grappling threat
- Small samples and inconsistent fight records limit certainty
Write-up
Croden starts from the supplied 70% market probability. Her superior striking differential (+2.14 versus -0.75) and takedown volume against Chandler's 25% takedown defense offer multiple ways to win rounds. Opponent-adjusted Elo favors Croden at only 56%, warranting a modest confidence reduction, although her rating is provisional after three UFC fights. Chandler's latest submission win shows a credible upset route and supersedes the stale statistical fight log. Neither supplied layoff, 177 and 128 days, is concerning. Decisions dominate the listed histories, making a points win most likely. Method percentages are conditional on Croden winning.