Anheliger told Cageside Press that he spent his nearly two years away from the UFC rehabbing a knee injury, and that earlier plans for his return in Shanghai and Las Vegas fell through. Both fighters made weight at 135 lbs.
- Chad Anheliger Anheliger said he spent his nearly two-year layoff rehabbing a knee injury, which he called 'maintenance and rehab and re-strengthening.' He said he kept training throughout. source
- Chad Anheliger Anheliger said an earlier offer to return in Shanghai fell through because it clashed with his wife's due date, and a later option in Las Vegas was complicated by an expired visa. source
- Both Both fighters weighed in at 135 lbs and made weight. source
- Takedown mismatch is Koslow's path: 5.28 TD/15 at 55% (1-fight sample) vs Anheliger's 38% takedown defense; Anheliger's three UFC losses came against grappling-capable opponents
- Koslow's 1,402-day layoff is roughly twice Anheliger's 709, and his only UFC sample ended in a late TKO, a sign of cardio fade
- Anheliger's age (about 39 years 10 months) and return from knee rehab are a real decline risk; Koslow has a 10-year age edge and a 5-inch reach edge
- Market 50/50, Elo 53/47 Anheliger (both provisional); Anheliger fights in his home province with a Canadian crowd
Write-up
This is a coin flip, and the market agrees: -110 on both sides, 50/50 after removing the vig. Elo leans slightly to Anheliger at 53/47, but both ratings are provisional (4 and 1 rated fights), so that lean counts for little. Both men carry serious layoff risk. Anheliger has been out 709 days rehabbing a knee and will be about 39 years and 10 months old on fight night. His own description of the time away was 'maintenance, rehab and re-strengthening', and his return was moved twice (Shanghai, then Vegas) before landing here. Koslow's layoff is worse: 1,402 days since his only UFC fight, a third-round TKO loss to Cameron Saaiman in December 2022. Stylistically Koslow is the problem for Anheliger. In that one UFC sample he averaged 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy, while Anheliger stops only 38% of takedowns, and his UFC losses all came against opponents who could grapple: decisions to Alatengheili and Cody Gibson, and a rear-naked choke from Jose Johnson. Koslow is also nearly 10 years younger and has a 5-inch reach edge (69 vs 64). Against that, Koslow's single fight showed a wrestler who faded and got stopped late. He landed just 0.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 3.73, with 40% striking defense. Anheliger is the more complete, more tested fighter (2-2 in the UFC against a reasonable level of opposition, 3.11 strikes landed per minute vs 2.76 absorbed). He fights in his home province of Alberta, and he showed over-the-distance durability against Grigoriou and Gibson. A nearly four-year layoff is the less known quantity, and Koslow's 125 lb listed weight hints at a smaller frame against a natural bantamweight. I side with Elo's small lean to Anheliger and keep the number almost even: Koslow wins early takedown exchanges, and Anheliger takes over as Koslow's pace drops, much like the Saaiman fight.
- Even market and a small, provisional Elo advantage for Anheliger
- Anheliger's striking edge versus Koslow's takedown threat
- Extended layoffs for both fighters and Anheliger's knee rehabilitation
- Koslow's one-fight sample and Anheliger's incomplete statistical record limit confidence
Write-up
Starting from the 50% market baseline, Anheliger earns a slight lean through better striking output and defense across a larger UFC sample. Provisional Elo also gives him 53%, offering limited support. Koslow's takedown activity threatens Anheliger's 38% takedown defense, but his statistics reflect only one UFC appearance. Both layoffs are substantial: 709 days for Anheliger and 1,402 for Koslow. Anheliger's documented knee rehabilitation offsets some advantage from the shorter absence. His statistical record also omits the latest Gibson loss, tempering confidence in the career averages. Decision is the narrow method preference; method percentages are conditional on an Anheliger victory.