Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Barcelos' superior striking metrics (5.22 SLPM vs 2.99, 51% accuracy vs 43%) and positive striking differential (+0.43 vs -0.85) create a clear advantage. Simon's 4-fight losing streak reveals declining performance, while Barcelos shows resilience with a recent submission victory. Barcelos' 85% takedown defense neutralizes Simon's wrestling-heavy approach (5.2 takedown attempts per fight at only 44% accuracy).

Barcelos holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential. His superior takedown defense (85%) should neutralize Simon's wrestling-heavy game, forcing Simon to engage more on the feet, where Barcelos is more effective. Simon's negative striking differential and lower striking output put him at a disadvantage in extended exchanges.