Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Bonfim's elite grappling (2.92 TD/15min, 75% accuracy, 1.9 subs/15min) presents a nightmare matchup for Brown's vulnerable ground game (70% TDD). While Brown has the physical advantages (6'3" vs 6'1", 78" reach vs 72"), Bonfim's recent wins over Stephen Thompson and Khaos Williams demonstrate his ability to overcome striking specialists. Brown's recent TKO of Nicolas Dalby is impressive, but Dalby stopped Bonfim via strikes - suggesting Bonfim has addressed his durability issues. The key will be Bonfim's ability to close distance and secure takedowns against the rangier opponent.

Bonfim's aggressive grappling, high takedown accuracy (75%), and submission activity (1.9 subs per fight) create a stylistic challenge for Brown, whose takedown defense (70%) has faltered against strong grapplers historically. Brown's reach could help on the feet, but Bonfim's higher volume and pressure tend to force clinch and ground exchanges where he excels.