Common opponent analysis strongly favors Pennington - she defeated Angela Hill twice while Gomes lost to Hill twice, establishing a clear hierarchy. Pennington's veteran experience (19 UFC fights vs Gomes' 6) and superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) provide crucial advantages. While their offensive outputs are similar (4.82 vs 4.48 SLPM), Pennington's 11% defensive advantage and proven ability to win close decisions make her the pick. Gomes is 10 years younger and improving, but Pennington's experience against top competition and 2-0 record vs common opponents is decisive.

Pennington holds statistical edges in striking defense (61% vs 50%) and striking volume, with a positive differential in significant strikes landed per minute. Her experience against higher-level competition, superior defensive metrics, and better performances versus common opponents indicate she can control the range and pace. While Gomes is a more active grappler with higher submission average, her takedown accuracy is low and Pennington's takedown defense should neutralize this. The fight likely goes the distance due to both fighters' low finish rates.