Tecia Pennington vs Denise Gomes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Common opponent analysis strongly favors Pennington - she defeated Angela Hill twice while Gomes lost to Hill twice, establishing a clear hierarchy. Pennington's veteran experience (19 UFC fights vs Gomes' 6) and superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) provide crucial advantages. While their offensive outputs are similar (4.82 vs 4.48 SLPM), Pennington's 11% defensive advantage and proven ability to win close decisions make her the pick. Gomes is 10 years younger and improving, but Pennington's experience against top competition and 2-0 record vs common opponents is decisive.

Pennington holds statistical edges in striking defense (61% vs 50%) and striking volume, with a positive differential in significant strikes landed per minute. Her experience against higher-level competition, superior defensive metrics, and better performances versus common opponents indicate she can control the range and pace. While Gomes is a more active grappler with higher submission average, her takedown accuracy is low and Pennington's takedown defense should neutralize this. The fight likely goes the distance due to both fighters' low finish rates.