Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Padilla's recent form shows exceptional finishing ability with 3 consecutive finishes (2 TKO, 1 SUB). His 75% takedown accuracy and 3.26 takedowns per fight create significant grappling pressure against Bonfim's 76% takedown defense. Padilla's 1.1 submissions per fight and recent submission victories over Llontop and Minasyan demonstrate active ground game threats. While Bonfim has better striking defense (70% vs 46%), Padilla's wrestling-heavy approach and 3-inch reach advantage can neutralize the striking exchanges. The Tapology data showing Bonfim as 'Gabriel Bonfim' with a loss to Nicolas Dalby via TKO raises durability concerns.

Bonfim's superior striking defense and differential, along with his proven takedown defense, give him a significant edge. While Padilla is aggressive with both striking and takedowns, his low defensive metrics (46% striking defense, 0% takedown defense) leave him vulnerable to Bonfim's accurate, high-output striking and ability to neutralize grappling threats.