Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BrownLightweightMain card
Chris PadillaWINNER
Chris
Padilla
3-0UFC
30 yrsElo 1605
VS
Ismael Bonfim
Ismael
Bonfim
2-2UFC
29 yrsElo 1469
Final: Chris Padilla by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Claude
68%
Padilla
GPT
78%
Bonfim
Elo
69%
Padilla
1605 vs 1469
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9" Height 5'8"
74" Reach 71"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
6.19 Landed / min 5.80
4.88 Absorbed / minlower better 3.16
54% Strike accuracy 54%
49% Strike defense 70%
1.13 Takedowns / 15 1.07
28% TD accuracy 33%
80% TD defense 76%
0.3 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 45%Claude: Decision 30%
45%Submission
Claude calls Submission, Round 2
KO/TKO 25%Submission 45%Decision 30%
GPT: KO/TKO 24%GPT: Submission 8%GPT: Decision 68%
68%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 24%Submission 8%Decision 68%
Formnewest first
Chris Padilla231 days out
W
Jai Herbert
S-DEC · 2025-03-22
W
James Llontop
SUB · 2024-04-27
W
Rongzhu
KO/TKO · 2024-03-23
Ismael Bonfim266 days out
L
Nazim Sadykhov
KO/TKO · 2025-02-15
W
Vinc Pichel
U-DEC · 2023-12-09
L
Benoit Saint Denis
SUB · 2023-07-01
W
Terrance McKinney
KO/TKO · 2023-01-21
Why
Claude
Chris Padilla
68% · Submission
  • Padilla averages 3.26 takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy vs Bonfim's 1.07 with only 33% accuracy
  • Padilla's 1.1 submissions per fight and recent submission wins indicate active ground threats
  • Bonfim's 0% submission average and vulnerability shown in Dalby TKO loss
  • Padilla's 3-inch reach advantage (74" vs 71") aids in clinch entries and ground control
Write-up

Padilla's recent form shows exceptional finishing ability with 3 consecutive finishes (2 TKO, 1 SUB). His 75% takedown accuracy and 3.26 takedowns per fight create significant grappling pressure against Bonfim's 76% takedown defense. Padilla's 1.1 submissions per fight and recent submission victories over Llontop and Minasyan demonstrate active ground game threats. While Bonfim has better striking defense (70% vs 46%), Padilla's wrestling-heavy approach and 3-inch reach advantage can neutralize the striking exchanges. The Tapology data showing Bonfim as 'Gabriel Bonfim' with a loss to Nicolas Dalby via TKO raises durability concerns.

GPT
Ismael Bonfim
78% · Decision
  • Bonfim's 70% striking defense vs Padilla's 46%
  • Bonfim absorbs less damage per minute (3.16 SApM vs 4.93)
  • Bonfim's 76% takedown defense counters Padilla's wrestling
Write-up

Bonfim's superior striking defense and differential, along with his proven takedown defense, give him a significant edge. While Padilla is aggressive with both striking and takedowns, his low defensive metrics (46% striking defense, 0% takedown defense) leave him vulnerable to Bonfim's accurate, high-output striking and ability to neutralize grappling threats.