Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Ramiz Brahimaj vs Oban Elliott

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

Ramiz Brahimaj
Ramiz Brahimaj
Age 32 · Elo 1469
LLWLW
195 days since last fight
vs
Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott
Age 27 · Elo 1473
LWW
195 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Ramiz BrahimajOban Elliott
Claude Claude: Ramiz Brahimaj 25% Claude: Oban Elliott 75% 25% 75% GPT GPT: Ramiz Brahimaj 25% GPT: Oban Elliott 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Ramiz Brahimaj 49% Elo: Oban Elliott 51% 49% 51%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Ramiz BrahimajOban Elliott
Strikes landed / min Ramiz Brahimaj Strikes landed / min: 2.29 2.29 Oban Elliott Strikes landed / min: 3.82 3.82 Strikes absorbed / min Ramiz Brahimaj Strikes absorbed / min: 3.27 3.27 Oban Elliott Strikes absorbed / min: 2.24 2.24 Striking accuracy Ramiz Brahimaj Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Oban Elliott Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Striking defense Ramiz Brahimaj Striking defense: 47% 47% Oban Elliott Striking defense: 61% 61% Takedowns / 15 min Ramiz Brahimaj Takedowns / 15 min: 1.99 1.99 Oban Elliott Takedowns / 15 min: 2.67 2.67 Takedown defense Ramiz Brahimaj Takedown defense: 44% 44% Oban Elliott Takedown defense: 72% 72% Sub attempts / 15 min Ramiz Brahimaj Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6 Oban Elliott Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 30% 30% GPT: Submission 20% 20% GPT: Decision 50% 50%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Oban Elliott by Decision, 75% confidence

Elliott holds significant advantages across key metrics that should prove decisive in this matchup. His striking differential (+1.58 vs -1.95) demonstrates superior offensive output and defensive awareness, landing more (3.82 vs 1.74 SLPM) while absorbing less (2.24 vs 3.69 SApM). Elliott's striking defense (61% vs 45%) and takedown defense (72% vs 44%) will neutralize Brahimaj's primary paths to victory. While Brahimaj has submission threat (1.6 SubAvg), Elliott's superior takedown accuracy (50% vs 35%) and defense should keep the fight in advantageous positions. Elliott's perfect UFC record contrasts sharply with Brahimaj's 33% win rate, and their form trajectories are divergent - Elliott on a three-fight win streak while Brahimaj has lost his last two. Elliott's 2-inch height advantage provides additional leverage in striking exchanges.

GPT
Oban Elliott by Decision, 75% confidence

Oban Elliott has shown superior striking and grappling statistics, with a significantly higher strike rate, accuracy, and defense. Moreover, his takedown accuracy and defense are also higher. Ramiz Brahimaj's ground control and effective strike rate are considerably lower, and his overall win rate is much lower than Elliott's.