Kurt Holobaugh vs Jordan Leavitt

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This matchup presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic that favors Holobaugh. His significantly higher striking volume (4.63 vs 2.55 SLPM) will be crucial against Leavitt's grappling-focused approach. While Leavitt has better striking accuracy (61% vs 45%), Holobaugh's volume advantage should overwhelm Leavitt in exchanges. Holobaugh's improved takedown defense (42%) remains a vulnerability against Leavitt's takedown average (2.19), but Holobaugh's superior cardio and pace should allow him to recover from grappling exchanges. Their common opponent analysis favors Leavitt, who defeated Trey Ogden while Holobaugh lost, but Holobaugh's recent form is stronger with wins in three of his last four fights compared to Leavitt's alternating results. Holobaugh's orthodox stance against Leavitt's southpaw creates an interesting dynamic, but Holobaugh's volume and pressure should be the difference-maker.

Jordan Leavitt has a higher win rate, a higher striking defense, and more takedowns per fight. He also performs better against common opponents.