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Zachary Reese vs Dusko Todorovic

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

Zachary Reese
Zachary Reese
Age 31 · Elo 1543*
WW
441 days since last fight
vs
Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic
Age 31 · Elo 1491
LWLWL
805 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Zachary ReeseDusko Todorovic
Claude Claude: Zachary Reese 65% Claude: Dusko Todorovic 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Zachary Reese 75% GPT: Dusko Todorovic 25% 75% 25% Elo Elo: Zachary Reese 57% Elo: Dusko Todorovic 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Zachary ReeseDusko Todorovic
Strikes landed / min Zachary Reese Strikes landed / min: 5.06 5.06 Dusko Todorovic Strikes landed / min: 4.52 4.52 Strikes absorbed / min Zachary Reese Strikes absorbed / min: 2.88 2.88 Dusko Todorovic Strikes absorbed / min: 4.20 4.20 Striking accuracy Zachary Reese Striking accuracy: 59% 59% Dusko Todorovic Striking accuracy: 57% 57% Striking defense Zachary Reese Striking defense: 48% 48% Dusko Todorovic Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Zachary Reese Takedowns / 15 min: 4.08 4.08 Dusko Todorovic Takedowns / 15 min: 2.03 2.03 Takedown defense Zachary Reese Takedown defense: 25% 25% Dusko Todorovic Takedown defense: 40% 40% Sub attempts / 15 min Zachary Reese Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.5 2.5 Dusko Todorovic Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 60% 60% GPT: Decision 20% 20%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Zachary Reese by Decision, 65% confidence

Reese brings superior grappling credentials with a 55% takedown accuracy and 4.08 takedowns per fight against Todorovic's subpar 45% takedown defense. While Todorovic has slightly higher striking volume (5.54 vs 5.06), Reese's switch stance and 3-inch reach advantage will allow him to control distance effectively. Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities (46% strike defense) combined with his 15-month layoff since his last KO loss to Jordan Wright create significant concerns. Reese's perfect 4-0 UFC record shows consistent improvement, while Todorovic has alternated wins and losses in his last five fights, showing vulnerability to both strikes and submissions.

GPT
Zachary Reese by Submission, 75% confidence

Zachary Reese has a higher striking accuracy, significant takedown average and higher submission average than Dusko Todorovic. Despite Dusko's higher strike volume, Zachary's defensive efficiency and effective strike rate give him a clear advantage. The stylistic matchup also favors Zachary with a mixed physical advantage.