Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Jacoby brings significantly higher striking volume (5.5 SLPM vs Lopes' 3.69) and despite his recent skid, possesses the technical striking advantage. While both fighters prefer to stand, Jacoby's 2-inch reach advantage and more diverse kickboxing arsenal will be crucial. Lopes shows better defensive stats (63% vs 57%), but Jacoby's experience against higher-caliber UFC competition gives him a substantial edge in timing and shot selection. Jacoby's recent form is concerning with three consecutive losses, but his KO power remains intact as demonstrated against Kennedy Nzechukwu. Lopes' perfect takedown defense (100%) suggests this fight stays standing, playing directly into Jacoby's preferred range where he can utilize his superior volume and combinations.

Dustin Jacoby has a significant advantage in terms of striking volume and accuracy, which would allow him to outscore Bruno Lopes over the course of the fight. Bruno's 100% takedown defense would likely nullify Dustin's already limited ground game, making this a primarily stand-up battle where Dustin's striking advantage would shine.