Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

MarQuel Mederos vs Bolaji Oki

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

MarQuel Mederos
MarQuel Mederos
Age 28 · Elo 1575*
WW
63 days since last fight
vs
Bolaji Oki
Bolaji Oki
Age 29 · Elo 1470*
LW
420 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

MarQuel MederosBolaji Oki
Claude Claude: MarQuel Mederos 35% Claude: Bolaji Oki 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: MarQuel Mederos 30% GPT: Bolaji Oki 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: MarQuel Mederos 65% Elo: Bolaji Oki 35% 65% 35%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

MarQuel MederosBolaji Oki
Strikes landed / min MarQuel Mederos Strikes landed / min: 4.39 4.39 Bolaji Oki Strikes landed / min: 6.42 6.42 Strikes absorbed / min MarQuel Mederos Strikes absorbed / min: 3.29 3.29 Bolaji Oki Strikes absorbed / min: 5.12 5.12 Striking accuracy MarQuel Mederos Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Bolaji Oki Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense MarQuel Mederos Striking defense: 63% 63% Bolaji Oki Striking defense: 61% 61% Takedowns / 15 min MarQuel Mederos Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Bolaji Oki Takedowns / 15 min: 1.02 1.02 Takedown defense MarQuel Mederos Takedown defense: 90% 90% Bolaji Oki Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min MarQuel Mederos Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Bolaji Oki Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 75% 75%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 30% 30% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Bolaji Oki by Decision, 65% confidence

Oki brings a more diverse offensive arsenal with superior striking volume (5.63 vs 4.39 SLPM) and grappling credentials (2.11 TDAvg with 75% accuracy). While both fighters share identical striking accuracy (45%) and defense (63%), Oki's ability to mix in takedowns provides a crucial path to victory. Mederos has shown solid TDD (90%), but Oki's wrestling pressure will likely force defensive adjustments that compromise Mederos' striking effectiveness. Oki's recent submission losses are concerning, but Mederos hasn't shown submission offense in UFC competition, making this less exploitable.

GPT
Bolaji Oki by Decision, 70% confidence

Bolaji Oki has a higher striking volume and takedown average, which could help him control the pace of the fight and score points. MarQuel Mederos's lack of takedown offense might be a disadvantage against Oki's strong takedown defense.