Jeremiah Wells vs Andreas Gustafsson

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Wells brings significant UFC experience advantage as Gustafsson makes his promotional debut. Despite Wells' recent two-fight skid, his explosive power and 80% takedown defense will be crucial against the debuting Gustafsson. While Gustafsson shows impressive striking accuracy (77%) and volume (4.56 SLPM), these numbers come against regional competition. Wells' switch stance and proven UFC-level power (3 finishes in 5 UFC wins) will present a dramatic step up in competition for Gustafsson. Wells' experience against higher-caliber opponents like Philip Rowe and Court McGee provides a substantial edge over Gustafsson's untested UFC potential. The typical UFC debut jitters and pressure will likely affect Gustafsson's performance against a battle-tested veteran.

Gustafsson has a significant advantage in striking accuracy and volume, with a higher Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute (SLPM) rate and striking accuracy. While Wells has a good takedown defense, Gustafsson's takedown accuracy and average takedowns per fight are superior. The physical advantages are mixed, but the striking advantage for Gustafsson could be the key to him winning this fight.