Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This flyweight matchup features two Brazilian submission specialists with contrasting recent activity. Filho enters with momentum from two consecutive submission victories, while Nascimento hasn't competed since January 2023. Filho's superior submission rate (2.6 per fight vs 0.9) and more active ground game will be decisive against Nascimento's alarming 16% takedown defense. Though Nascimento has better striking metrics (61% accuracy vs 41%), Filho's aggressive submission hunting and significantly better takedown defense (55% vs 16%) creates a clear path to victory. Nascimento's 16-month layoff is concerning, especially in the cardio-intensive flyweight division where Filho has shown consistent improvement across his three UFC appearances.

Based on the statistical analysis, Allan Nascimento has a higher striking accuracy and volume compared to Jafel Filho. Although Jafel Filho has a higher submission average, Allan's superior striking game and defensive efficiency will likely carry him to a decision victory.