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UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. OliveiraWelterweightPrelims
Nikolay VeretennikovWINNER
Nikolay
Veretennikov
1-3UFC
36 yrsElo 1488
VS
Niko Price
Niko
Price
8-11UFC
36 yrsElo 1493
Final: Nikolay Veretennikov by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Claude
72%
Price
GPT
63%
Price
Elo
51%
Price
1488 vs 1493
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'1" Height 6'0"
75" Reach 76"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.40 Landed / min 5.21
3.33 Absorbed / minlower better 5.58
59% Strike accuracy 42%
54% Strike defense 48%
n/a Takedowns / 15 1.04
0% TD accuracy 29%
60% TD defense 52%
n/a Subs / 15 0.7
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 45%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 35%
45%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 45%Submission 20%Decision 35%
GPT: KO/TKO 55%GPT: Submission 12%GPT: Decision 33%
55%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 55%Submission 12%Decision 33%
Formnewest first
Nikolay Veretennikov126 days out
L
Punahele Soriano
U-DEC · 2025-10-04
W
Francisco Prado
S-DEC · 2025-07-19
L
Austin Vanderford
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-02-22
L
Danny Barlow
S-DEC · 2024-03-02
Niko Price224 days out
L
Jacobe Smith
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-06-28
L
Themba Gorimbo
U-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Alex Morono
U-DEC · 2024-01-01
L
Robbie Lawler
KO/TKO · 2023-07-08
L
Phil Rowe
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
Why
Claude
Niko Price
72% · KO/TKO
  • Price lands 1.81 more strikes per minute with superior reach
  • Veretennikov on 2-fight losing streak showing declining durability
  • Price's 29% takedown accuracy vs Veretennikov's 60% TDD creates grappling opportunities
  • Veretennikov absorbs 3.33 strikes per minute with only 54% defense
Write-up

Price's significant volume advantage (5.21 vs 3.4 SLPM) and proven finishing ability create overwhelming pressure for Veretennikov. While Veretennikov has better striking accuracy (59% vs 42%), Price's 53% higher output and willingness to engage in firefights favors his chaotic style. Veretennikov's recent losses by decision suggest durability issues against pressure fighters, and Price's 76-inch reach advantage helps him land from range.

GPT
Niko Price
63% · KO/TKO
  • Significant volume edge for Price (5.21 SLpM vs 3.4 SLpM) likely forces Veretennikov into defensive spots and behind on optics if it goes long
  • Price has multiple finishing avenues (power striking plus 0.7 subs per fight with 1.04 TDs per fight) versus Veretennikov's current UFC profile as a low-TD, low-finish threat
  • Veretennikov's defensive metrics are only slightly better (54% vs 48% striking defense) and untested against the level of chaos, power, and unorthodox attacks Price routinely brings
Write-up

Price's much higher output, proven UFC finishing power, and opportunistic grappling give him more paths to victory against a lower-volume, largely unproven UFC commodity in Veretennikov. While Price's defense and durability have declined, his chaos-heavy style, willingness to push pace, and ability to mix in takedowns and submissions should force more high-variance exchanges that favor his experience and finishing instincts, especially over three rounds.