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Nikolay Veretennikov vs Niko Price

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

FINAL: Nikolay Veretennikov by KO/TKO Punches
Nikolay Veretennikov
Nikolay Veretennikov
Age 36 · Elo 1488
LWLL
126 days since last fight
vs
Niko Price
Niko Price
Age 36 · Elo 1477
LLWLL
224 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Nikolay VeretennikovNiko Price
Claude Claude: Nikolay Veretennikov 28% Claude: Niko Price 72% 28% 72% GPT GPT: Nikolay Veretennikov 37% GPT: Niko Price 63% 37% 63% Elo Elo: Nikolay Veretennikov 52% Elo: Niko Price 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Nikolay VeretennikovNiko Price
Strikes landed / min Nikolay Veretennikov Strikes landed / min: 3.40 3.40 Niko Price Strikes landed / min: 5.21 5.21 Strikes absorbed / min Nikolay Veretennikov Strikes absorbed / min: 3.33 3.33 Niko Price Strikes absorbed / min: 5.58 5.58 Striking accuracy Nikolay Veretennikov Striking accuracy: 59% 59% Niko Price Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Striking defense Nikolay Veretennikov Striking defense: 54% 54% Niko Price Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Nikolay Veretennikov Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Niko Price Takedowns / 15 min: 1.04 1.04 Takedown defense Nikolay Veretennikov Takedown defense: 60% 60% Niko Price Takedown defense: 52% 52% Sub attempts / 15 min Nikolay Veretennikov Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Niko Price Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 45% 45% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 55% 55% GPT: Submission 12% 12% GPT: Decision 33% 33%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Niko Price by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Price's significant volume advantage (5.21 vs 3.4 SLPM) and proven finishing ability create overwhelming pressure for Veretennikov. While Veretennikov has better striking accuracy (59% vs 42%), Price's 53% higher output and willingness to engage in firefights favors his chaotic style. Veretennikov's recent losses by decision suggest durability issues against pressure fighters, and Price's 76-inch reach advantage helps him land from range.

GPT
Niko Price by KO/TKO, 63% confidence

Price's much higher output, proven UFC finishing power, and opportunistic grappling give him more paths to victory against a lower-volume, largely unproven UFC commodity in Veretennikov. While Price's defense and durability have declined, his chaos-heavy style, willingness to push pace, and ability to mix in takedowns and submissions should force more high-variance exchanges that favor his experience and finishing instincts, especially over three rounds.