Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Oliveira's superior striking differential (+3.0 vs +1.42) and undefeated UFC record suggest he can control the pace. His recent wins over high-level competition (Kyler Phillips, Said Nurmagomedov) demonstrate championship-caliber skills. Bautista's loss to Umar Nurmagomedov exposed vulnerabilities against elite strikers. Both fighters went to decision against Ricky Simón, but Oliveira's higher finish rate in recent fights (40% with 2 TKOs in last 5) gives him more paths to victory.

Oliveira shows a superior striking differential (+3.0 vs Bautista's +1.42) while absorbing significantly fewer strikes per minute, suggesting cleaner shot selection and better distance management. His offensive wrestling metrics (60% TD accuracy vs 33% for Bautista) give him a secondary path if the striking is close, and his slightly better takedown defense helps keep the fight in his preferred range. Bautista's higher submission average is a real threat, but Oliveira's overall efficiency, higher output with less damage taken, and dual-threat offense tilt a competitive fight in his favor over three rounds.