Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Basharat's superior striking metrics (5.42 SLPM, 62% defense) and exceptional 85% takedown defense neutralize Nurmagomedov's primary weapons. While Said averages 1.4 submissions per fight, Basharat's 19% better TDD and higher pace create control issues. Basharat's 1-inch height advantage and similar reach allow him to maintain distance while outworking Said with nearly 2 more strikes landed per minute.

Basharat's numbers point to a stronger round-winning style: higher output (5.42 SLpM vs 3.55), better accuracy (53% vs 47%), superior strike differential (+2.45 vs +1.42), and much better takedown metrics (1.7 TDs per fight at 40% with 85% TD defense). Said is dangerous with opportunistic submissions and spinning counters, but his low TD accuracy (16%) and only moderate TD defense (66%) suggest he'll struggle to consistently dictate grappling or control minutes. Over three rounds, Basharat's volume, defensive edge, and superior wrestling efficiency should bank more rounds even while needing to stay alert for Said's explosive moments.