Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Despite recent KO loss to Volkov, Almeida's elite grappling (6.85 takedowns per fight, 2.6 submissions per fight) presents massive problems for Kuniev. The common opponent analysis is crucial - both lost to Curtis Blaydes, but Almeida's submission wins over Romanov and quick finishes show his grappling remains elite. Kuniev's perfect takedown defense (100%) comes from limited UFC sample size. Almeida's 3-inch reach advantage and superior cardio from fighting 5-rounders gives him control.

Almeida's historically elite top control and submission game, combined with a massive takedown volume (6.85 TDs per 15 with 59% accuracy), projects to outpace Kuniev's more modest but efficient wrestling and striking. Kuniev's inflated striking metrics (5.82 SLpM on 72% accuracy, 100% TD defense) are based on a far smaller and softer UFC sample and are unlikely to hold against Almeida's chain wrestling, clinch pressure, and ability to finish sequences on the mat. Over three rounds, the cumulative takedown attempts and control time from Almeida statistically favor him finding a back take or dominant position leading to a choke or arm-triangle, especially as Kuniev's defensive grappling has not been tested at this level.