Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. OliveiraWomen's StrawweightPrelims
Bruna Brasil
Bruna
Brasil
2-3UFC
32 yrsElo 1472
VS
Ketlen SouzaWINNER
Ketlen
Souza
2-2UFC
31 yrsElo 1511
Final: Ketlen Souza by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
78%
Souza
GPT
72%
Souza
Elo
56%
Souza
1472 vs 1511
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'6" Height 5'3"
65" Reach 63"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
2.56 Landed / min 5.11
3.75 Absorbed / minlower better 3.49
57% Strike accuracy 66%
52% Strike defense 56%
1.23 Takedowns / 15 0.76
52% TD accuracy 50%
57% TD defense 62%
0.1 Subs / 15 0.8
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 15%Claude: Submission 55%Claude: Decision 30%
55%Submission
Claude calls Submission, Round 2
KO/TKO 15%Submission 55%Decision 30%
GPT: KO/TKO 18%GPT: Submission 12%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 12%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Bruna Brasil364 days out
L
Wang Cong
U-DEC · 2025-02-08
W
Molly McCann
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
L
Loma Lookboonmee
U-DEC · 2024-02-10
W
Shauna Bannon
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
L
Denise Gomes
KO/TKO · 2023-04-15
Ketlen Souza357 days out
L
Angela Hill
S-DEC · 2025-02-15
W
Marnic Mann
U-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Yazmin Jauregui
SUB · 2024-03-30
L
Karine Silva
SUB · 2023-06-03
Why
Claude
Ketlen Souza
78% · Submission
  • Souza averages 0.8 submissions per fight vs Brasil's 0
  • 2.17 strike per minute advantage forces Brasil into grappling exchanges
  • Souza on 3-fight win streak with improving submission timing
  • Brasil's 50% striking defense vs Souza's 66% accuracy creates damage accumulation
Write-up

Souza's superior striking volume (5.11 vs 2.94 SLPM) and 0.8 submission average create a dual threat Brasil struggles to defend. Souza's 3-fight win streak with 2 recent submissions shows peak form, while Brasil's 50% striking defense leaves her vulnerable to Souza's 66% accurate strikes. The striking differential of +2.17 for Souza forces Brasil to shoot takedowns, playing into Souza's submission game.

GPT
Ketlen Souza
72% · Decision
  • Souza's significantly higher striking volume (5.11 SLpM vs 2.94) and strong positive differential (+1.62 vs -0.55)
  • Better defensive metrics for Souza (56% striking defense, 62% TD defense) compared to Brasil's more hittable profile
  • Souza's more rounded threat with some grappling/submission danger (0.8 SubAvg) discouraging Brasil from overcommitting to wrestling
Write-up

Souza profiles as the higher-output, more efficient striker with better defensive metrics and a strong positive strike differential, while Brasil is negative in exchanges and relies more on opportunistic wrestling that may struggle against Souza's solid takedown defense. Over three rounds, Souza's pace, accuracy, and slightly better defensive numbers should allow her to outland Brasil and control the tempo, with both fighters historically showing limited finishing at this level, making a decision the most likely outcome.