Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Horiguchi's elite experience (35-5 record) and recent submission victories show evolved grappling to complement his karate base. His striking differential (+1.15) significantly outpaces Albazi's (-0.27), while maintaining comparable defensive metrics. Albazi's recent losses to Moreno and Jafel Filho indicate struggles against elite competition. Horiguchi's wins over Tagir Ulanbekov (by submission) and Sergio Pettis demonstrate he can handle UFC-caliber wrestlers and strikers alike.

Horiguchi's higher striking volume, better accuracy, and positive differential suggest he will outwork Albazi over three rounds, while his superior takedown accuracy and defense should allow him to dictate when and if grappling occurs. Albazi is dangerous in scrambles and submissions, but his lower output, negative strike differential, and weaker defensive wrestling metrics indicate he will likely be edged in minutes and optics rather than find consistent control or a finish.