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UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. OliveiraWelterweightPrelims
Alex Morono
Alex
Morono
14-9UFC
35 yrsElo 1537
VS
Daniil DonchenkoWINNER
Daniil
Donchenko
1-0UFC
24 yrsElo 1565*
Final: Daniil Donchenko by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
65%
Morono
GPT
78%
Morono
Elo
54%
Donchenko
1537 vs 1565
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11" Height 5'11"
72" Reach 71"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.90 Landed / min 8.07
4.88 Absorbed / minlower better 2.80
39% Strike accuracy 62%
55% Strike defense 70%
0.32 Takedowns / 15 0.58
24% TD accuracy 33%
47% TD defense 75%
0.3 Subs / 15 n/a
Small sample: Daniil Donchenko, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 15%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 24%GPT: Submission 18%GPT: Decision 58%
58%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 24%Submission 18%Decision 58%
Formnewest first
Alex Morono336 days out
L
Carlos Leal
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-03-08
L
Daniel Rodriguez
S-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Court McGee
U-DEC · 2024-04-06
L
Niko Price
U-DEC · 2024-01-01
L
Joaquin Buckley
U-DEC · 2023-10-07
Daniil Donchenko147 days out
W
Rodrigo Sezinando
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-09-13
Why
Claude
Alex Morono
65% · Decision
  • Morono's 24 UFC fights vs Donchenko's debut creates insurmountable experience gap
  • 4.96 SLPM output will overwhelm untested opponent
  • Morono's 72-inch reach in orthodox stance controls engagement distance
  • Recent competitive losses to UFC veterans vs unknown regional competition level
Write-up

Another UFC debutant faces a massive experience gap against Morono's 24 UFC fights. Morono's 4.96 strikes per minute and 40% accuracy may seem modest, but against zero UFC data from Donchenko, it's overwhelming. The 11-year age gap (33 vs 22) suggests Morono's veteran craftiness will exploit Donchenko's inexperience. Morono's recent split decision losses show he's still competitive at UFC level, while Donchenko faces the steepest learning curve in professional sports.

GPT
Alex Morono
78% · Decision
  • Significant experience edge for Morono against UFC-caliber opposition, versus Donchenko's complete lack of UFC data
  • Morono's high striking volume (4.96 SLPM) and positive differential favor him in a likely three-round, range-striking battle
  • Donchenko's unknown cardio and defense at UFC pace make it hard to trust him to win minutes over 15 minutes
Write-up

Morono brings a long sample of UFC-level output (high SLPM, positive striking differential, and proven durability) against a debuting/unknown quantity in Donchenko with no recorded UFC stats. Morono's experience, pace, and composure in three-round fights should allow him to control range, win minutes with volume, and bank rounds, even if Donchenko is technically sharp or dangerous early.