Malcolm Wellmaker moved his training to American Top Team after back-to-back losses, before this fight. Both fighters made weight at 136 lbs.
- Malcolm Wellmaker After losing to Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz, Wellmaker joined American Top Team to train with more experienced fighters and coaches ahead of this bout. source
- Wellmaker's 3 UFC/DWCS wins were all first-punch stoppages, with UFC finishes over Saaiman and Moutinho in round 1
- Wellmaker's losses (Ewing U-DEC, Diaz RNC) show he can be beaten by grinding and grappling, and Tanzilovi profiles as a takedown-oriented fighter
- Tanzilovi has no finishes in his recorded big-stage fights: S-DEC loss on DWCS and U-DEC loss to Shane Collins
- Wellmaker's camp change to ATT after two losses targets his grappling defense, but it is July news and already priced in
- Very small samples on both sides (Wellmaker 2 UFC fights in the stats, Tanzilovi listed as a debutant), so confidence stays capped
Write-up
The market makes Wellmaker 64% to win, and I stay just below that because both sides of the sample are thin. Wellmaker is a switch-stance power puncher. Before his recent slide he stopped Bramhald, Saaiman and Moutinho with punches, and both UFC wins came in round 1. His two losses show where he is vulnerable: Ethyn Ewing beat him by decision over a full fight, and Juan Diaz submitted him with a rear-naked choke. So he struggles when opponents drag him into long or grappling-heavy fights. Tanzilovi fits that profile. The matchup tags him as a grappler, and his limited numbers show takedown volume at low accuracy. But his only two recorded pro-level fights are decision losses: a split decision to Josias Musasa on DWCS and a unanimous decision to Shane Collins in June 2026. Neither shows an ability to finish or to control strong opposition. UFCStats lists him with no completed UFC fights, so I don't treat his per-minute numbers as evidence either way. Wellmaker's move to American Top Team after back-to-back losses should help his takedown defense and scrambling, which are exactly the problems these losses exposed. That news came out in July, though, so the market has already priced it. Physically they are even: both are 5'10 and Wellmaker has a 1-inch reach edge. The most likely path is Wellmaker landing early before Tanzilovi can build up grappling exchanges. The main risk is that Tanzilovi survives the first round and repeats the Ewing or Diaz kind of fight. This involves a debutant and small samples, so confidence stays under the 65 cap.
- Market favors Wellmaker at 66%; modest uncertainty adjustment
- Three knockout wins establish Wellmaker's clearest winning route
- Recent consecutive losses contradict Wellmaker's stale statistical form
- Tanzilovi debut status and inconsistent records limit confidence
- Neither supplied layoff exceeds the prolonged-inactivity threshold
Write-up
The 66% de-vigged market favors Wellmaker; I trim that to 64% for debutant uncertainty and conflicting statistical coverage. His three documented knockout wins support a striking finish, but his subsequent decision and submission losses outweigh the stale undefeated statistical snapshot. Tanzilovi's debut flag makes his listed UFC averages unreliable, and neither fighter has an established opposition-quality advantage here. The supplied layoffs of 143 and 108 days are not material rust concerns. Wellmaker's July camp change offers no demonstrated improvement to price separately, and the current market already incorporates the two-point move. Method percentages are conditional on a Wellmaker win.