The market has Allen at about 57% after removing the vig, and Elo has him at 60% (1642 vs 1568, a 74-point gap). Both priors point the same way and are close together, so I start near 58% and only adjust for the matchup. This is a grappler against a striker over five rounds. On the feet Duncan has the edge: 4.45 strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy, only 2.36 absorbed per minute, a +2.09 differential and a 79-inch reach (4 inches longer than Allen). Allen absorbs 3.78 per minute with 47% striking defence, so a long kickboxing fight favours Duncan. Allen's way to win is wrestling and control: 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.1 submission attempts, and a long record of back-take finishes. Duncan's 57% takedown defence is ordinary and he averages zero submission attempts. His decision win over Roman Dolidze suggests his scrambling has improved, but Dolidze is a ground-and-pound grappler rather than a back-taker like Allen. On quality of opposition, Allen has recently beaten de Ridder (TKO in round 4 of a main event), Vettori and Shahbazyan, and his only recent losses are to Imavov and Hernandez, both elite. Duncan is on a 5-fight win streak and his Elo is rising fast (+39), but only the Cannonier win is against a clearly top-15 name. The five-round length matters: Allen has already gone past round 3 against de Ridder and Curtis, while Duncan has never fought a 25-minute bout. That makes cumulative wrestling and late submissions more likely. Duncan is dangerous in the first two rounds, especially if Allen walks into his long straight punches. Layoffs of 120 and 78 days are both normal, and there is no fight-week news. My Allen win probability is 59%. That is close to the market, so I see no strong edge. The likeliest single outcome is an Allen decision built on control, with a late submission as a real second route.

Allen's 56% market baseline and 60% Elo estimate support a narrow favorite. His higher takedown and submission rates offer a route against Duncan's 57% takedown defense. Duncan counters with superior striking efficiency, a reach advantage and five consecutive wins, including decisions over Cannonier and Dolidze; his stronger Elo trend limits confidence in Allen. The updated enrichment logs take precedence over conflicting older form entries and favor a decision. Neither supplied layoff indicates prolonged inactivity. The small market move is already priced in, with no material news supporting another adjustment. Round five assumes a five-round main event; method percentages are conditional on Allen winning.