There is no market line for this fight, so the call rests on form and matchup. One data note first: the stats feed flags Kamaka as a UFC debutant with no completed fights, but his own fight log shows UFC bouts against Jonathan Pearce (KO loss), TJ Brown (split-decision loss), Danny Chavez (majority draw), Dakota Hope (split-decision win, Apr 2026) and Luke Riley (KO loss, Jul 2026). His per-minute UFC stats are missing, not zero, so I don't use any of them, and the debut confidence cap of 65 still applies. Fili is 36, has lost two straight, and his recent losses show his durability fading: KO by Dan Ige, guillotine by Melquizael Costa, KO by elbows against Vinicius Oliveira in June. His wins in this stretch are split decisions over Cub Swanson and Christian Rodriguez, so even when he wins it's close. His career numbers are roughly even on the feet (3.88 strikes landed per minute vs 4.11 absorbed, -0.23 differential, 37% accuracy). His clearest edges are wrestling (2.15 takedowns per 15 at 43%, 70% takedown defense) and a 74-inch reach, which he can use to keep a shorter featherweight at range. Kamaka has gone 1-3-1 in the UFC with no wins inside the distance. His bouts are usually close and tend to go the full 3 rounds, but the Pearce and Riley stoppages show he can be finished when hit cleanly. Fili has faced better opposition overall (Swanson, Delgado, Rodriguez, Ige), and his takedowns let him steal rounds Kamaka might otherwise win in the scrambles. Against that, Fili was knocked out more recently (106 days ago, against Kamaka's 85 days since the Riley KO), he is older, and he has now been stopped twice in his last 5 fights. With both fighters coming off knockouts and both prone to split decisions, this is close to a coin flip. I lean slightly to Fili on reach, wrestling and the quality of his recent opponents, and expect a close decision.

Fili is the pick at the normalized 59% market baseline; the supplied evidence does not justify moving away from it. His listed reach advantage supports the selection, but two consecutive losses, including a recent stoppage, temper confidence. Kamaka's debut flag contradicts the supplied UFC history, making his statistical averages unreliable for matchup analysis. Neither supplied layoff approaches the 450-day concern threshold. Opposition quality cannot be reliably separated from these records. Fili's recent wins came by split decision, favoring a competitive decision prediction. Method percentages are conditional on Fili winning.