The market has this at 50/50 and provisional Elo has Temirov at 55%. With both fighters on two or three rated UFC bouts, the Elo lean deserves only a small move. The concrete evidence for Temirov is a common opponent. Charles Johnson knocked Kavanagh out in round 2 in August 2025, while Temirov outworked Johnson over three rounds for a clear decision. Temirov has also finished CJ Vergara and, in his July 2026 return from the 12-month CSAD suspension, Steve Erceg. That return showed no ring rust and real power at flyweight. Kavanagh's case is that he is 27, beat Brandon Moreno, lands an efficient 66% of his strikes and has a 4-inch reach advantage (67 vs 63) for working the jab at range. But he was submitted by Royval in July and is back 99 days later after two losses in his last three fights, and his chin has already given way once to a Johnson-level puncher. Temirov's 8.12 significant strikes landed per minute and 75% defence come from a two-fight sample and will drop against Kavanagh's crisp boxing, so don't take them at face value. I lean Temirov, at near coin-flip confidence. Decision is the single most likely result, with a meaningful KO chance.

Starting from the market's 50/50 baseline, Temirov earns a slight edge through his recent knockout wins and provisional Elo's 55% estimate. His victory over Charles Johnson, who stopped Kavanagh, provides supporting evidence rather than a decisive comparison. Temirov's striking differential favors him, but his two-fight statistical sample warrants substantial discounting. Kavanagh's higher striking accuracy and decision win over Brandon Moreno keep this close. Both fought in July, making extended inactivity irrelevant. Conflicting records and duplicated older entries reduce confidence. Temirov's recent finishes support a narrow knockout preference; method percentages are conditional on him winning.