Nicolle Caliari weighed in at 120.5 lb, 4.5 lb over the strawweight non-title limit. She was fined 30% of her purse and the bout is going ahead; Lucindo returns from a layoff that included a Nevada suspension after a failed drug test, which she attributed to a tainted supplement.
- Nicolle Caliari Caliari weighed in at 120.5 lb, 4.5 lb over the 116-lb women's strawweight non-title limit, while Lucindo weighed 115 lb. source
- Nicolle Caliari Caliari was fined 30% of her purse, which goes to Lucindo, and the bout is going ahead. source
- Iasmin Lucindo Wikipedia says the Nevada State Athletic Commission temporarily suspended Lucindo after she failed a drug test in September. The failure was attributed to a tainted supplement, and she got a nine-month suspension that ran until June 24, 2026. source
- Iasmin Lucindo Wikipedia says Lucindo withdrew from a scheduled December 13, 2025 bout against Gillian Robertson because of an undisclosed injury. Amanda Lemos replaced her, and Lucindo has not fought since August 2025. source
- Opposition gap: Lucindo has beaten Hill, Rodriguez and Kowalkiewicz, while Caliari was 1-2 in the UFC before beating Bannon
- Caliari's 1.89 SLpM and 31% strike defense mean that if her takedowns fail, she loses the striking badly to Lucindo's 3.52 SLpM and 66% defense
- Lucindo's 436-day layoff is close to the 450-day risk threshold, and Caliari's drop from flyweight gives her a strength edge in clinches and on the mat
- Lucindo has gone to decision in 4 of her last 5 (20% finish rate), so I favor a decision over a finish
Write-up
The market has Lucindo at 76% and Elo has her at 65%. Caliari's Elo is provisional and appears not to include her May 2026 arm-triangle win over Shauna Bannon, so it likely understates her a little. Lucindo's 7-fight UFC sample is much stronger on opposition quality: decision wins over Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and only a decision loss to top contender Amanda Lemos. That is a level Caliari, a DWCS signee who was 1-2 in the UFC before the Bannon win, hasn't come close to. On style, Caliari is a pure grappler: 6.32 takedowns and 6.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes on a 2-fight sample, but only 1.89 SLpM and 31% strike defense. Lucindo has 66% takedown defense and lands 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes herself, and she is the clearly better striker (3.52 SLpM, 66% defense, positive differential). If Caliari can't hold top position early, the fight becomes a one-sided striking contest. Two things keep me below the market. First, Lucindo's 436-day layoff is close to the ~450-day risk line. Second, Caliari drops from flyweight, so she should be the stronger grappler in clinches and could steal positions. Lucindo has finished only 1 of her last 5 (20%), and Caliari has only been stopped by a knee. I land at 72, between the two priors, with a decision the clear most likely result.
- Market and opponent-adjusted Elo both favor Lucindo
- Lucindo leads striking differential: +0.61 versus -1.27
- Lucindo's wrestling offers another route to winning rounds, while Caliari threatens submissions
- Lucindo's long layoff adds uncertainty despite remaining below approximately 450 days
- Caliari's small sample, conflicting records and unspecified bout weight limit confidence
Write-up
Starting from Lucindo's 76% market probability, I reduce confidence modestly for her roughly 14-month layoff and unresolved weight-class information. Elo also favors her, at 65%, but Caliari's rating is provisional and omits her supplied latest win. Lucindo's superior striking differential, defense and established UFC results support the favorite. Caliari's recent submission wins establish an upset route, although her extreme grappling averages come from a small sample. Four consecutive decisions in Lucindo's named fight log favor another distance win. Method percentages are conditional on Lucindo winning.