Krylov's jaw was broken in his last fight, a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026. Both fighters weighed 206 lbs at the UFC 333 weigh-ins.
- Krylov has been KO/TKO'd in three of his last four fights (Reyes R1, Guskov, Whittaker), with a possible broken jaw from the July 11 stoppage only 99 days ago
- Yakhyaev is 10-0, 25 years old and has finished all four fights on file: two KOs and two rear-naked chokes, so he has two ways to win
- Krylov's career 44% strike defense and 53% takedown defense leave openings both standing and on the mat
- The data conflicts (Yakhyaev is flagged as a debutant but has three logged UFC wins), and Krylov is a submission threat early, so confidence is held below the 79% market
Write-up
The market is 79% Yakhyaev (-500) and has not moved across 19 snapshots. There is no Elo rating for this fight. Yakhyaev is flagged as a UFC debutant with no UFCStats data, so I do not cite his 32 SLpM, 88% accuracy or 100% takedown defense. Those are artifacts of almost no data. However, the recent-form log shows three UFC wins: Cerqueira (RNC, Nov 2025), Ribeiro (RNC, Apr 2026) and Julius Walker (KO, Jun 2026), after a DWCS knockout. That conflicts with the debut flag, so the uncertainty is real but smaller than a true debut. I hold confidence at 70, below the market, to reflect the thin data, the conflicting flags and Krylov's veteran submission threat (1.4 subs per 15 minutes, plus a triangle win over Spann). Krylov's recent trend is the real story. He has been knocked out three times in his last four fights: by Reyes (round 1), Guskov and Whittaker. The Whittaker loss in July was an injury stoppage that Rotowire thinks was a broken jaw, unconfirmed. That was 99 days ago. Coming back from a possible jaw fracture against a 25-year-old unbeaten finisher is a meaningful durability risk. Krylov's 44% strike defense and 53% takedown defense also give Yakhyaev two ways to win: power on the feet, or takedowns and back-takes, as his two RNC wins show. Krylov's best chance is early: a scramble or submission while Yakhyaev is still settling in against far more experience.
- Strong, steady market support for Yakhyaev
- Krylov's recent knockout losses suggest vulnerability despite favorable career averages
- Yakhyaev's debut designation requires discounting unreliable statistics and capping confidence
- Krylov's experience and grappling threat offset uncertainty about Yakhyaev's opposition
- Listed layoffs of 99 and 113 days present no extended-inactivity concern
Write-up
The 79% de-vigged market favors Yakhyaev, supported by four reported consecutive finishes. Krylov's three knockout losses in his latest five listed bouts outweigh his positive career striking differential and favor a stoppage prediction. However, Yakhyaev's debut flag conflicts with the enrichment history, making his UFC experience and extreme striking statistics unreliable; confidence is capped at 65%. Krylov's established experience and submission threat provide credible upset routes, while Yakhyaev's listed wins do not establish comparable opposition quality. Neither supplied layoff indicates extended inactivity. Method probabilities are conditional on Yakhyaev winning.