Esteban Ribovics weighed 156.5 lb for the 156-lb non-title lightweight limit, so the bout goes ahead at a catchweight and he forfeits 20% of his purse. After the miss, the two fighters and their teams had an altercation outside the fighter hotel.
- Esteban Ribovics Ribovics missed weight at 156.5 lb, half a pound over the 156-lb non-title lightweight limit. The bout goes ahead at a catchweight, he forfeits 20% of his purse and he cannot win a performance bonus. It is his first weight miss in the UFC. source
- King Green Green made weight at 155.5 lb. He shouted at a cameraman during a hard weight cut, and the report describes no medical issue. source
- Both After the weight miss, Green and his team, including boxer Arnold Barboza Jr., confronted Ribovics outside the fighter hotel. The confrontation turned physical, with members of both teams involved. source
- Common-opponent edge: Green KO'd Zellhuber, Ribovics only split-decisioned him; both KO'd McKinney in round one
- Ribovics absorbs 5.83 SApM at 54% defense, the most hittable fighter on the card, against Green's 62% defense, 53% accuracy and 2-inch reach edge
- Green's 4-fight, 80% finish streak vs Ribovics' alternating W-L pattern in his last five; but Green's KO loss to Ruffy at age 40 caps confidence
- Ribovics on a 43-day turnaround after a KO war with Barboza; altitude in Salt Lake City penalizes his high-volume, low-accuracy approach in round three
Write-up
Genuinely close fight and the model's lowest-confidence pick on the card. Green's Elo is flagged provisional and his UFC history table only captures three bouts, so the 44/56 Elo lean toward Ribovics is unreliable, treat it as noise. What is reliable: two effective common opponents. Green knocked out Daniel Zellhuber; Ribovics needed a split decision over him. Both men knocked out Terrance McKinney in round one. That gives Green a modest comparative edge. Stylistically, Ribovics is a high-output brawler (7.27 SLpM) who absorbs 5.83 per minute with only 54% defense, profile that plays directly into Green's counter-striking, 62% defense, and 2-inch reach advantage. Green's four-fight finish run (80%) is the hottest stretch of his career, though it came against faded or mid-tier names (Stephens, McKinney, Zellhuber, Gibson Jr.). Two major concerns anchor the confidence: Green is 40 and was flattened by Ruffy in round one 18 months ago, and Ribovics just knocked out Edson Barboza and returns on a 43-day turnaround, so he is sharp and confident. The short turnaround cuts both ways, minimal camp time and a fresh war at UFC 330. Salt Lake City's altitude tends to punish the fighter who throws the most with the least efficiency, which is Ribovics (43% accuracy). Expect a high-pace striking bout where Green's counters and cleaner accuracy edge close rounds, but Ribovics' power and Green's age-related durability risk keep the KO probability high for both sides.
- Green leads striking accuracy 53% to 43% and defense 62% to 54%
- Green has a +2.70 significant strikes per minute differential versus Ribovics' +1.44
- Ribovics lands more strikes per minute, but Green offers more frequent takedowns
Write-up
Green's higher striking accuracy, stronger defense and superior strike differential favor him in sustained exchanges. His higher takedown rate provides another route to winning rounds. Ribovics' greater striking volume and higher reported win rate keep confidence modest. Missing finish data limits certainty about the method.