The market makes Nolan a 69% favorite (-265). Elo has it close to even at 52-48 for McGee, but Nolan's rating is provisional because it rests on one rated UFC fight, so it shouldn't carry much weight. That leaves the market as the main prior. McGee's case has real problems. He turns 42 in December, he is 1-4 in his last five, and his only win in that stretch was a first-round rear-naked choke of a 40-year-old Tim Means. Two of those four losses were first-round knockouts (Jeremiah Wells, Matt Brown). He also hasn't fought in 474 days, which is past the ~450-day threshold where ring rust and age become a real risk. His career numbers still look decent (4.50 strikes landed per minute vs 3.65 absorbed, 60% striking defense, 70% takedown defense), but recent results contradict them. Lately he has been beaten by mid-tier welterweights such as Chiesa and Morono, which tells you he is fading. Nolan is far from a sure thing. He is 0-2 in the UFC, with a second-round rear-naked choke loss to Baisangur Susurkaev at middleweight and a decision loss to Farman Hasanov in June. Those were both solid opponents, though, and he showed he can last into later rounds. At 29 he is about 12 years younger than McGee and is 6'2" compared with McGee's 5'11". As a former middleweight dropping to welterweight, he should be the bigger man and better able to absorb McGee's pressure-and-clinch style. McGee fighting his retirement bout at home in Salt Lake City should help his motivation and the crowd will be behind him, but that doesn't make up for the age and layoff problems. I take Nolan, but a few points under the market, because his UFC sample is tiny and McGee's veteran clinch and back-take game can still steal rounds against a young fighter who is still learning how to fight at this level.

Starting from Nolan's supplied 69% market probability, I reduce confidence because opponent-adjusted Elo favors McGee 52, 48 and Nolan has sparse, incomplete statistics. Nolan's provisional one-fight Elo deserves limited weight, so I retain the market side. McGee's four losses in five fights and 474-day layoff weaken the case suggested by his positive career striking differential. His experience and submission win over Means offer an upset route, particularly given Nolan's recorded rear-naked-choke loss. Nolan's two recent losses prevent a stronger endorsement. Missing statistics are not evidence of poor skills; duplicated McGee results and the unspecified weight class add uncertainty. Decision is the cautious method pick without evidence establishing Nolan's finishing ability. Method percentages are conditional on Nolan winning.