The market has Rodriguez at 59% after de-vigging, and I see only a small reason to come off that. The data has a conflict: Rodriguez is flagged as a UFC debutant, but his fight log shows a UFC KO win over Kevin Borjas (Feb 2026) after a DWCS KO, and he has per-minute numbers (5.71 SLpM, 2.42 SApM, 55% accuracy). Because of the debut flag, the 65 cap applies. Those numbers come from one or two fights, so they are small-sample noise. Still, a +3.29 strike differential and back-to-back KO wins point to a sharp, efficient orthodox puncher. Coria is the more proven UFC fighter at 13-3 (1 NC). He is on a 3-fight UFC win streak, beating Costa by KO and then Gurule and Nicoll by unanimous decision. His last two fights went 15 minutes, so he is durable and can control pace. His UFCStats profile is empty (last updated Sep 2025), so I can't check his volume or defense, and the zeros there mean missing data, not a weakness. Rodriguez is 5'4" with a 64" reach, which is small even at flyweight, so he has to close distance against a more experienced opponent. That favors a close, competitive fight over an early stoppage. Rodriguez's power and accuracy give him the edge, but Coria's durability and 75-day layoff (against Rodriguez's 215 days) make this closer than his 100% finish rate suggests. I'm shading slightly below the market because Coria has three straight wins at UFC level, while Rodriguez's UFC body of work is thinner.

I favor Rodriguez at the supplied 59% de-vigged market baseline; there is no concrete evidence supporting an adjustment. His two listed knockout wins support the finish prediction, while Coria's three consecutive wins, including two decisions, provide a credible alternative. Rodriguez's debut flag conflicts with the enrichment's UFC history, and Coria's statistics are incomplete, preventing reliable statistical comparisons. Neither the reported 215-day nor 75-day layoff reaches the material-risk threshold. Opposition quality is not established. Method probabilities are conditional on Rodriguez winning.