Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The dataCompleteness block flags Gandra as a debutant, yet his fight log shows two UFC stoppage wins (Reese, Medina) on top of a DWCS KO, so the underlying stats are a tiny sample and I treat them as directional only. What is not noise is the pattern: three straight knockouts, all by punches, and a 10-1 pro record. Diaz is the taller man by three inches with a five-inch reach edge, but his durability is the defining problem in this matchup. He has been stopped by punches or elbows in three of his last four logged fights (Pyfer, Zhang Mingyang, Ateba Gautier), absorbs 6.52 strikes per minute against just 5.33 landed, and defends only 61% of incoming strikes. His only recent win was a decision over Djorden Santos, a low bar. Diaz also comes in off a 120-day layoff following a KO loss, and his recent frame-hopping between light heavyweight and middleweight suggests an unsettled camp. Gandra's rhythm (57 days since his last win) and his demonstrated ability to close on longer opponents point to the same outcome that has followed every power puncher Diaz has faced. Confidence is capped at 65 due to the debut flag and small sample.

Gandra's higher striking output and stronger defense favor him against Diaz, who absorbs more significant strikes than he lands. Sustained offense makes a second-round stoppage plausible, though unknown sample sizes and missing finishing history limit confidence. Diaz's reach advantage offers a counterweight.