Market (62%) and Elo (59%) agree here and my read lands in the same band. O'Neill's defining trait is pace: 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy is elite for the division and roughly three times Moura's 2.57 SLPM at 37%. Moura's entire game is the takedown (3.58 per 15) but she only converts 34% of them, and O'Neill defends at 70% and has consistently scrambled back to her feet against grapplers. Moura's 80% TDD is a real asset but it's defensive, it stops O'Neill from wrestling, which O'Neill doesn't need to do. The cross-check on recent form also favors O'Neill: Moura's wins came against a 42-year-old Lauren Murphy and Veronica Hardy, while she was outworked by Wang Cong and lost a split to Denise Gomes at strawweight. O'Neill has now won two straight including a TKO of Fernandes, and her only losses were to a veteran Maia and an armbar from Ariane da Silva, the submission loss is the relevant caution, because Moura's route to winning is getting O'Neill down in a scramble and finding a choke or armbar. Moura's 0.4 sub rate says that's a low-frequency outcome. The likeliest shape is O'Neill stuffing or reversing early shots, pouring on volume in rounds two and three as Moura tires, and taking a clear decision; the TKO on a stationary Moura against the fence is the secondary path.

O'Neill's higher striking output and accuracy favor her in standing exchanges: 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy versus Moura's 2.57 at 37%. Moura's higher takedown rate offers a credible path to victory, but O'Neill's 70% takedown defense supports a narrow decision pick. Limited finishing and control data temper confidence. Method probabilities describe O'Neill's wins.