Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Market (62%) and Elo (59%) agree here and my read lands in the same band. O'Neill's defining trait is pace: 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy is elite for the division and roughly three times Moura's 2.57 SLPM at 37%. Moura's entire game is the takedown (3.58 per 15) but she only converts 34% of them, and O'Neill defends at 70% and has consistently scrambled back to her feet against grapplers. Moura's 80% TDD is a real asset but it's defensive - it stops O'Neill from wrestling, which O'Neill doesn't need to do. The cross-check on recent form also favors O'Neill: Moura's wins came against a 42-year-old Lauren Murphy and Veronica Hardy, while she was outworked by Wang Cong and lost a split to Denise Gomes at strawweight. O'Neill has now won two straight including a TKO of Fernandes, and her only losses were to a veteran Maia and an armbar from Ariane da Silva - the submission loss is the relevant caution, because Moura's route to winning is getting O'Neill down in a scramble and finding a choke or armbar. Moura's 0.4 sub rate says that's a low-frequency outcome. The likeliest shape is O'Neill stuffing or reversing early shots, pouring on volume in rounds two and three as Moura tires, and taking a clear decision; the TKO on a stationary Moura against the fence is the secondary path.

O'Neill's higher striking output and accuracy favor her in standing exchanges: 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy versus Moura's 2.57 at 37%. Moura's higher takedown rate offers a credible path to victory, but O'Neill's 70% takedown defense supports a narrow decision pick. Limited finishing and control data temper confidence. Method probabilities describe O'Neill's wins.