This is a coin flip dressed up as a moderate favorite. The market has Shahbazyan at 59% but the opponent-adjusted Elo is dead even (1573 vs 1578, 49/51), and Ferreira's rating held despite back-to-back losses because Rodrigues and Aliskerov are top-15 caliber. Shahbazyan's own last loss was a decision to Brendan Allen, so both men are coming off defeats to better opposition than they'll see here. The stylistic read favors Shahbazyan narrowly: he's five inches taller with a two-inch reach edge, out-lands Ferreira on volume (4.06 vs 3.27 SLPM), and Ferreira's 50% takedown defense gives Edmen a wrestling safety valve he used to grind out Petroski. Ferreira's threat is real, though, he's an explosive, low-guard swinger who armbarred Petrosyan and McVey, and Shahbazyan has been submitted before (Meerschaert) and cracked by Hermansson, Brunson and Imavov. Ferreira has now been knocked out by Rodrigues and Ruziboev, and his defensive numbers (3.75 SApM absorbed against 3.27 landed) are negative-differential for a supposed knockout artist. I take Shahbazyan because the longer, more disciplined striker who can also wrestle usually beats the shorter chaos merchant when both chins are suspect, and because the Muniz first-round elbow finish shows the finishing power is still there. But I'm putting him closer to 55% than the market's 59%, Ferreira's early-round blitz is the single most likely way this ends in the first five minutes.

Shahbazyan's higher striking output and positive strike differential favor him in sustained exchanges. Better takedown accuracy and defense offer additional routes to winning rounds against Ferreira's 50% takedown defense. Ferreira's higher supplied win rate tempers confidence; the missing finish history makes the method prediction less certain.