Ruffy is the most dangerous pure striker Tsarukyan has faced since Oliveira, and his knockouts of Fiziev and Chandler in 2026 are legitimate top-15 wins, not padding. But his only UFC loss is the blueprint for this fight: Benoit Saint Denis took him down, took his back and choked him in round two. Tsarukyan is a far better wrestler than Saint Denis, averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and absorbing only 1.80 significant strikes per minute, the best defensive number on the card. His 37% takedown accuracy looks low but reflects relentless chain wrestling against elite opposition; Ruffy's 86% takedown defense is built on a five-fight sample where most opponents never tried. The 4-inch height and 3-inch reach edge give Ruffy a real window at range, especially in round one when Tsarukyan may carry rust from a 288-day layoff, and the market's 75% feels a touch rich given that Ruffy's power ends fights with one shot. Elo at 61% Tsarukyan is too low because Ruffy's rating is barely past provisional. I land near 70%: Tsarukyan closes distance behind level changes, drains Ruffy against the fence, and finds a choke or arm triangle once Ruffy gives up his back to stand, the same way he finished Hooker.

Tsarukyan's stronger striking differential (+2.05 versus +0.36) and takedown output offer more routes to winning rounds. Ruffy's 86% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy make him competitive, but his higher absorption favors Tsarukyan over time. Round assumes a three-round bout; method probabilities are conditional on Tsarukyan winning.