Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Makhachev already answered the welterweight size question by dominating Jack Della Maddalena over five rounds, and Garry presents a less dangerous version of that same problem. Garry's 80% takedown defense looks respectable on paper, but it has never been stress-tested by a chain wrestler of Makhachev's caliber - Shavkat Rakhmonov, a far less refined wrestler, was able to drag him into grinding grappling exchanges and win every card. Garry's path requires keeping this at kickboxing range for 25 minutes using his 4-inch reach and 4.78 SLpM volume, but Makhachev's 91% TD defense and 61% striking defense neutralize Garry's counter-wrestling threat (0.92 TD/fight, 31% accuracy is negligible offense against Islam). The Elo model (62/38) is softer than the market (74/26), but I side closer to the market: Elo underweights how stylistically tailored this is - Garry has zero UFC finishes in his last five and his only loss came to the one elite grappler he's faced. Makhachev's D'Arce sequences off scrambles (Poirier, Moicano) map directly onto Garry's tendency to give up his neck defending shots against the fence. Expect Garry to win striking moments in round 1 before Makhachev times a takedown and compounds control into a mid-fight submission.

Garry's four-inch reach advantage, movement and 4.78 significant strikes landed per minute give him a credible path at distance. However, Makhachev absorbs only 1.45 significant strikes per minute and combines elite defense with far superior takedown efficiency and submission offense. Garry's 80% takedown defense is strong, but Makhachev's layered entries, fence wrestling and positional control are a substantially tougher test than a single-shot wrestling attack. Garry may win early striking phases, but repeated grappling exchanges should allow Makhachev to take over and secure a late submission.