Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a rebound fight booked for Abdul-Malik after the Belgaroui knee KO, and Stoltzfus is a stylistically friendly opponent for that purpose. Stoltzfus is 2-8 in rated UFC bouts with a 46% takedown defense - the single most exploitable number in this matchup. His path to winning is grappling, but Abdul-Malik defends 83% of takedowns, which forces Stoltzfus into striking exchanges against a longer (80" vs 75" reach), harder-hitting, 6-years-younger man who has finished via KO in three of his last five wins. Stoltzfus also enters off a 337-day layoff and two straight decision losses where he was outworked by mid-tier opposition (Gastelum, Ruziboev). The one genuine caution: Abdul-Malik's chin was just cracked, his SApM (4.49) is high for a fighter this hyped, and Elo (66%) prices him well below the market's 85% because he's provisional with only 3 rated fights. I land closer to the market than Elo here - Elo can't see that Stoltzfus's losses came against notably better athletes than he is, and the physical mismatch is stark - but the -770 line leaves no betting value on the favorite straight. Abdul-Malik hurts him in exchanges and finishes on the ground or against the fence by mid-fight.

Stoltzfus has the more active submission profile, but his 37% takedown accuracy must overcome Abdul-Malik's strong 83% takedown defense. Abdul-Malik should therefore dictate where the fight takes place and exploit Stoltzfus's porous 46% takedown defense if needed. Although Abdul-Malik absorbs 4.49 significant strikes per minute, his athleticism, reach, and finishing power make him more likely to hurt Stoltzfus during early exchanges or transitions.