The rare fight with a direct common-opponent comparison: both men beat Cody Brundage by split decision, which tells us less about a gap than the market's -310 implies, and the Elo model agrees, giving Johnson only 53% on provisional data. The truth sits between. Johnson is 8-0 with genuinely well-rounded skills: 100% takedown accuracy, a guillotine finish of Dumas, 61% striking defense, and a +23 trend. McConico is a durable, game veteran at 36 whose only recent losses came via KO to heavy-handed finishers (Ruziboev, Susurkaev), a profile Johnson, at 3.11 SLPM with modest power, does not fit. That specific mismatch pushes me away from a KO prediction: McConico just went 15 minutes with submission ace Rodolfo Vieira and survived, showing his grappling defense is functional. Johnson's southpaw-vs-southpaw mirror neutralizes stance dynamics, and McConico's 3-inch reach and 4-inch height edge give him tools to make rounds competitive. But Johnson's superior defense (61% vs McConico's poor 45% StrDef), takedown threat, and 9-year age advantage should bank two of three rounds. The market at 73% is somewhat rich given McConico's durability against non-punchers and the tiny UFC sample on Johnson; I land closer to 67%, clearly favoring Johnson but expecting he has to work the full 15 minutes against a veteran who is very hard to put away without one-punch power.

Johnson is the more efficient and defensively reliable fighter, landing slightly more while absorbing substantially less. His higher takedown output should also let him dictate where exchanges occur. McConico's reach and size advantages create risk, but his porous striking defense and negative differential favor Johnson over three rounds. Limited underlying sample information keeps confidence moderate.