Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Chimaev's elite wrestling volume (4.31 TDs per 15, 46% accuracy) combined with 100% takedown defense and high submission threat (2.8 subs per 15) gives him multiple paths to control rounds even if Strickland's jab and volume create problems on the feet. Strickland's 77% TDD is good but not historically tested against a relentless chain-wrestler of Chimaev's caliber, and his lower finishing threat plus a historically durable, hard-to-hit style makes him more likely to lose extended control/time and minutes than to get a stoppage. Over five rounds, the most probable script is Chimaev winning early with grappling dominance and enough striking success to bank three or more rounds, with Strickland surviving and having pockets of success in the later rounds as Chimaev's pace tapers.